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Conditional Expectation as Quantile Derivative

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  • Dirk Tasche

Abstract

For a linear combination of random variables, fix some confidence level and consider the quantile of the combination at this level. We are interested in the partial derivatives of the quantile with respect to the weights of the random variables in the combination. It turns out that under suitable conditions on the joint distribution of the random variables the derivatives exist and coincide with the conditional expectations of the variables given that their combination just equals the quantile. Moreover, using this result, we deduce formulas for the derivatives with respect to the weights of the variables for the so-called expected shortfall (first or higher moments) of the combination. Finally, we study in some more detail the coherence properties of the expected shortfall in case it is defined as a first conditional moment. Key words: quantile; value-at-risk; quantile derivative; conditional expectation; expected shortfall; conditional value-at-risk; coherent risk measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Tasche, 2001. "Conditional Expectation as Quantile Derivative," Papers math/0104190, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0104190
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Major, John A., 2018. "Distortion measures and homogeneous financial derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 82-91.
    2. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2019. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Papers 1909.11794, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    3. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    4. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
    5. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    6. Carlo Acerbi & Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Expected Shortfall: A Natural Coherent Alternative to Value at Risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(2), pages 379-388, July.
    7. Tsanakas, Andreas, 2004. "Dynamic capital allocation with distortion risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 223-243, October.
    8. Matthias Fischer & Thorsten Moser & Marius Pfeuffer, 2018. "A Discussion on Recent Risk Measures with Application to Credit Risk: Calculating Risk Contributions and Identifying Risk Concentrations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28, December.
    9. Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Expected Shortfall and Beyond," Papers cond-mat/0203558, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2002.
    10. Koike, Takaaki & Hofert, Marius, 2021. "Modality for scenario analysis and maximum likelihood allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 24-43.
    11. Takaaki Koike & Mihoko Minami, 2017. "Estimation of Risk Contributions with MCMC," Papers 1702.03098, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    12. Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "Expected shortfall and beyond," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1519-1533, July.
    13. Elisabetta Cagna & Giulio Casuccio, 2014. "Equally-weighted Risk Contribution Portfolios: an empirical study using expected shortfall," CeRP Working Papers 142, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    14. Akif Ince & Ilaria Peri & Silvana Pesenti, 2021. "Risk contributions of lambda quantiles," Papers 2106.14824, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    15. Rosen, Dan & Saunders, David, 2009. "Analytical methods for hedging systematic credit risk with linear factor portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 37-52, January.
    16. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2020. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, January.

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