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Application of multi-agent games to the prediction of financial time-series

Author

Listed:
  • N. F. Johnson
  • D. Lamper
  • P. Jefferies
  • M. L. Hart
  • S. Howison

Abstract

We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to the possibility of identifying profit opportunities, the technique may prove useful in the development of improved risk management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • N. F. Johnson & D. Lamper & P. Jefferies & M. L. Hart & S. Howison, 2001. "Application of multi-agent games to the prediction of financial time-series," Papers cond-mat/0105303, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0105303
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Antoaneta Serguieva & Hao Wu, 2009. "Financial contagion: evolutionary optimization of a multinational agent‐based model," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1‐2), pages 111-125, January.
    2. J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
    3. Zhang, Mengqi & Jiang, Xin & Fang, Zehua & Zeng, Yue & Xu, Ke, 2019. "High-order Hidden Markov Model for trend prediction in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 1-12.
    4. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    5. Zhang, H.S. & Shen, X.Y. & Huang, J.P., 2016. "Pattern of trends in stock markets as revealed by the renormalization method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 340-346.
    6. Daye Li & Rongrong Li & Qiankun Sun, 2017. "How the heterogeneity in investment horizons affects market trends," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1473-1482, March.
    7. Chen, Fang & Gou, Chengling & Guo, Xiaoqian & Gao, Jieping, 2008. "Prediction of stock markets by the evolutionary mix-game model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3594-3604.
    8. Li, Da-Ye & Nishimura, Yusaku & Men, Ming, 2014. "Fractal markets: Liquidity and investors on different time horizons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 144-151.
    9. Schinckus, C., 2013. "Between complexity of modelling and modelling of complexity: An essay on econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3654-3665.
    10. Gou, Chengling, 2006. "Deduction of initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(2), pages 633-640.
    11. Derveeuw, Julien, 2005. "Market dynamics and agents behaviors: a computational approach," MPRA Paper 4916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stefan, F.M. & Atman, A.P.F., 2015. "Is there any connection between the network morphology and the fluctuations of the stock market index?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 630-641.
    13. Wei, J.R. & Huang, J.P. & Hui, P.M., 2013. "An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(12), pages 2728-2735.
    14. Groot, Robert D. & Musters, Pieter A.D., 2005. "Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 533-547.

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