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Modeling of Measurement Error in Financial Returns Data

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  • Ajay Jasra
  • Mohamed Maama
  • Aleksandar Mijatovi'c

Abstract

In this paper we consider the modeling of measurement error for fund returns data. In particular, given access to a time-series of discretely observed log-returns and the associated maximum over the observation period, we develop a stochastic model which models the true log-returns and maximum via a L\'evy process and the data as a measurement error there-of. The main technical difficulty of trying to infer this model, for instance Bayesian parameter estimation, is that the joint transition density of the return and maximum is seldom known, nor can it be simulated exactly. Based upon the novel stick breaking representation of [12] we provide an approximation of the model. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior of the approximated posterior and then extend this to a multilevel MCMC method which can reduce the computational cost to approximate posterior expectations, relative to ordinary MCMC. We implement our methodology on several applications including for real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajay Jasra & Mohamed Maama & Aleksandar Mijatovi'c, 2024. "Modeling of Measurement Error in Financial Returns Data," Papers 2408.07405, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2408.07405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael B. Giles, 2008. "Multilevel Monte Carlo Path Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 607-617, June.
    2. Jorge González Cázares & Aleksandar Mijatović, 2022. "Simulation of the drawdown and its duration in Lévy models via stick-breaking Gaussian approximation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 671-732, October.
    3. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    4. Matthew P. S. Gander & David A. Stephens, 2007. "Simulation and inference for stochastic volatility models driven by Lévy processes," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(3), pages 627-646.
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