IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2404.01337.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detection of Temporality at Discourse Level on Financial News by Combining Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Garc'ia-M'endez
  • Francisco de Arriba-P'erez
  • Ana Barros-Vila
  • Francisco J. Gonz'alez-Casta~no

Abstract

Finance-related news such as Bloomberg News, CNN Business and Forbes are valuable sources of real data for market screening systems. In news, an expert shares opinions beyond plain technical analyses that include context such as political, sociological and cultural factors. In the same text, the expert often discusses the performance of different assets. Some key statements are mere descriptions of past events while others are predictions. Therefore, understanding the temporality of the key statements in a text is essential to separate context information from valuable predictions. We propose a novel system to detect the temporality of finance-related news at discourse level that combines Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning techniques, and exploits sophisticated features such as syntactic and semantic dependencies. More specifically, we seek to extract the dominant tenses of the main statements, which may be either explicit or implicit. We have tested our system on a labelled dataset of finance-related news annotated by researchers with knowledge in the field. Experimental results reveal a high detection precision compared to an alternative rule-based baseline approach. Ultimately, this research contributes to the state-of-the-art of market screening by identifying predictive knowledge for financial decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Garc'ia-M'endez & Francisco de Arriba-P'erez & Ana Barros-Vila & Francisco J. Gonz'alez-Casta~no, 2024. "Detection of Temporality at Discourse Level on Financial News by Combining Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning," Papers 2404.01337, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.01337
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.01337
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Dimpfl & Stephan Jank, 2016. "Can Internet Search Queries Help to Predict Stock Market Volatility?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 171-192, March.
    2. Karapandza, Rasa, 2016. "Stock returns and future tense language in 10-K reports," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 50-61.
    3. Kim, A. & Yang, Y. & Lessmann, S. & Ma, T. & Sung, M.-C. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2020. "Can deep learning predict risky retail investors? A case study in financial risk behavior forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 217-234.
    4. Nofer, Michael & Hinz, Oliver, 2015. "Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market: Where is the Mood Effect?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77140, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Ingrid E. Fisher & Margaret R. Garnsey & Mark E. Hughes, 2016. "Natural Language Processing in Accounting, Auditing and Finance: A Synthesis of the Literature with a Roadmap for Future Research," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 157-214, July.
    6. Michael Nofer & Oliver Hinz, 2015. "Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 57(4), pages 229-242, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liang, Chao & Wang, Lu & Duong, Duy, 2024. "More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Francisco de Arriba-P'erez & Silvia Garc'ia-M'endez & Jos'e A. Regueiro-Janeiro & Francisco J. Gonz'alez-Casta~no, 2024. "Detection of financial opportunities in micro-blogging data with a stacked classification system," Papers 2404.07224, arXiv.org.
    3. Jung, Sang Hoon & Jeong, Yong Jin, 2021. "Examining stock markets and societal mood using Internet memes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Daniele Ballinari & Simon Behrendt, 2021. "How to gauge investor behavior? A comparison of online investor sentiment measures," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-204, June.
    5. Audrino, Francesco & Sigrist, Fabio & Ballinari, Daniele, 2020. "The impact of sentiment and attention measures on stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 334-357.
    6. Sophie Cockcroft & Mark Russell, 2018. "Big Data Opportunities for Accounting and Finance Practice and Research," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 28(3), pages 323-333, September.
    7. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    8. Lehrer, Steven & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Social media sentiment, model uncertainty, and volatility forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Stefan Stieglitz & Christian Meske & Björn Ross & Milad Mirbabaie, 2020. "Going Back in Time to Predict the Future - The Complex Role of the Data Collection Period in Social Media Analytics," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 395-409, April.
    10. Frank Z. Xing & Erik Cambria & Lorenzo Malandri & Carlo Vercellis, 2018. "Discovering Bayesian Market Views for Intelligent Asset Allocation," Papers 1802.09911, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    11. Costola, Michele & Hinz, Oliver & Nofer, Michael & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "Machine learning sentiment analysis, COVID-19 news and stock market reactions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Zhen-Hua Yang & Jian-Guo Liu & Chang-Rui Yu & Jing-Ti Han, 2017. "Quantifying the effect of investors’ attention on stock market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Heba Ali, 2018. "Twitter, Investor Sentiment and Capital Markets: What Do We Know?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(8), pages 158-158, August.
    14. Youzhu Li & Xianghui Gao & Mingying Du & Rui He & Shanshan Yang & Jason Xiong, 2020. "What Causes Different Sentiment Classification on Social Network Services? Evidence from Weibo with Genetically Modified Food in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
    15. K Shiljas & Dilip Kumar & Hajam Abid Bashir, 2023. "Nexus between Twitter-based sentiment and tourism sector performance amid COVID-19 pandemic," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2200-2205, December.
    16. Siikanen, Milla & Baltakys, Kęstutis & Kanniainen, Juho & Vatrapu, Ravi & Mukkamala, Raghava & Hussain, Abid, 2018. "Facebook drives behavior of passive households in stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 208-213.
    17. Bowden, James & Gemayel, Roland, 2022. "Sentiment and trading decisions in an ambiguous environment: A study on cryptocurrency traders," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xiong, Lu & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi & Foglia, Matteo, 2022. "Multilayer network analysis of investor sentiment and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2021. "Strength of words: Donald Trump's tweets, sanctions and Russia's ruble," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 253-277.
    20. Qing Liu & Hosung Son, 2024. "Data selection and collection for constructing investor sentiment from social media," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.01337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.