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Cluster-Randomized Trials with Cross-Cluster Interference

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  • Michael P. Leung

Abstract

The literature on cluster-randomized trials typically assumes no interference across clusters. This may be implausible when units are irregularly distributed in space without well-separated communities, in which case clusters may not represent significant geographic, social, or economic divisions. In this paper, we develop methods for reducing bias due to cross-cluster interference. First, we propose an estimation strategy that excludes units not surrounded by clusters assigned to the same treatment arm. We show that this substantially reduces asymptotic bias relative to conventional difference-in-means estimators without substantial cost to variance. Second, we formally establish a bias-variance trade-off in the choice of clusters: constructing fewer, larger clusters reduces bias due to interference but increases variance. We provide a rule for choosing the number of clusters to balance the asymptotic orders of the bias and variance of our estimator. Finally, we consider unsupervised learning for cluster construction and provide theoretical guarantees for $k$-medoids.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Leung, 2023. "Cluster-Randomized Trials with Cross-Cluster Interference," Papers 2310.18836, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.18836
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.18836
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Sandra M. Eldridge & Obioha C. Ukoumunne & John B. Carlin, 2009. "The Intra‐Cluster Correlation Coefficient in Cluster Randomized Trials: A Review of Definitions," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 77(3), pages 378-394, December.
    4. Michael P. Leung, 2021. "Rate-Optimal Cluster-Randomized Designs for Spatial Interference," Papers 2111.04219, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    6. Neal Alexander & Audrey Lenhart & Karim Anaya-Izquierdo, 2020. "Spatial spillover analysis of a cluster-randomized trial against dengue vectors in Trujillo, Venezuela," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-13, September.
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