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Real-time Trading System based on Selections of Potentially Profitable, Uncorrelated, and Balanced Stocks by NP-hard Combinatorial Optimization

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  • Kosuke Tatsumura
  • Ryo Hidaka
  • Jun Nakayama
  • Tomoya Kashimata
  • Masaya Yamasaki

Abstract

Financial portfolio construction problems are often formulated as quadratic and discrete (combinatorial) optimization that belong to the nondeterministic polynomial time (NP)-hard class in computational complexity theory. Ising machines are hardware devices that work in quantum-mechanical/quantum-inspired principles for quickly solving NP-hard optimization problems, which potentially enable making trading decisions based on NP-hard optimization in the time constraints for high-speed trading strategies. Here we report a real-time stock trading system that determines long(buying)/short(selling) positions through NP-hard portfolio optimization for improving the Sharpe ratio using an embedded Ising machine based on a quantum-inspired algorithm called simulated bifurcation. The Ising machine selects a balanced (delta-neutral) group of stocks from an $N$-stock universe according to an objective function involving maximizing instantaneous expected returns defined as deviations from volume-weighted average prices and minimizing the summation of statistical correlation factors (for diversification). It has been demonstrated in the Tokyo Stock Exchange that the trading strategy based on NP-hard portfolio optimization for $N$=128 is executable with the FPGA (field-programmable gate array)-based trading system with a response latency of 164 $\mu$s.

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  • Kosuke Tatsumura & Ryo Hidaka & Jun Nakayama & Tomoya Kashimata & Masaya Yamasaki, 2023. "Real-time Trading System based on Selections of Potentially Profitable, Uncorrelated, and Balanced Stocks by NP-hard Combinatorial Optimization," Papers 2307.06339, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2307.06339
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