Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015.
"Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
- Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2016. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," NBER Working Papers 21945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Timothy Taylor, 2015. "On the Verges of Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 3-8, Fall.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006.
"Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2004. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 12, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2015. "Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 37-60, Fall.
- Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2016. "Mindful Economics: The Production, Consumption, and Value of Beliefs," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 141-164, Summer.
- Michael D. Grubb, 2015.
"Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 9-36, Fall.
- Michael D. Grubb, 2015. "Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 877, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007.
"Optimism and economic choice,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
- Manju Puri & David Robinson, 2005. "Optimism and Economic Choice," NBER Working Papers 11361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989.
"Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1986. "Maxmin Expected Utility with a Non-Unique Prior," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275405, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
- Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1989. "Maxmin Expected Utility with Non-Unique Prior," Post-Print hal-00753237, HAL.
- Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
- Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
- Akerlof, George A & Dickens, William T, 1982. "The Economic Consequences of Cognitive Dissonance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 307-319, June.
- Christopher P. Chambers, 2009. "An Axiomatization Of Quantiles On The Domain Of Distribution Functions," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 335-342, April.
- Aharon Ben‐Tal & Marc Teboulle, 2007. "An Old‐New Concept Of Convex Risk Measures: The Optimized Certainty Equivalent," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 449-476, July.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
- Kovach, Matthew, 2020. "Twisting the truth: foundations of wishful thinking," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
- Marzena Rostek, 2010. "Quantile Maximization in Decision Theory ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(1), pages 339-371.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Jarrod Burgh & Emerson Melo, 2024. "Censored Beliefs and Wishful Thinking," Papers 2402.01892, arXiv.org.
- Aharon Ben-Tal & Dimitris Bertsimas & David B. Brown, 2010. "A Soft Robust Model for Optimization Under Ambiguity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-2), pages 1220-1234, August.
- Dan A. Iancu & Marek Petrik & Dharmashankar Subramanian, 2015. "Tight Approximations of Dynamic Risk Measures," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 655-682, March.
- Samuel Drapeau & Michael Kupper, 2013. "Risk Preferences and Their Robust Representation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 28-62, February.
- Knispel, Thomas & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Svindland, Gregor, 2016.
"Robust optimal risk sharing and risk premia in expanding pools,"
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 182-195.
- Thomas Knispel & Roger J. A. Laeven & Gregor Svindland, 2016. "Robust Optimal Risk Sharing and Risk Premia in Expanding Pools," Papers 1601.06979, arXiv.org.
- Roger J. A. Laeven & Mitja Stadje, 2014. "Robust Portfolio Choice and Indifference Valuation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 1109-1141, November.
- Laeven, R.J.A. & Stadje, M.A., 2011.
"Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk,"
Discussion Paper
2011-031, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Laeven, R.J.A. & Stadje, M.A., 2011. "Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk," Other publications TiSEM 08f59c7c-7302-47f9-9a9b-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Volker Krätschmer & Marcel Ladkau & Roger J. A. Laeven & John G. M. Schoenmakers & Mitja Stadje, 2018. "Optimal Stopping Under Uncertainty in Drift and Jump Intensity," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(4), pages 1177-1209, November.
- Roger J. A. Laeven & Mitja Stadje, 2013.
"Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk,"
Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(2), pages 265-293, May.
- Laeven, R.J.A. & Stadje, M.A., 2011. "Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk," Discussion Paper 2011-031, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Laeven, R.J.A. & Stadje, M.A., 2011. "Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk," Other publications TiSEM 08f59c7c-7302-47f9-9a9b-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Yuanying Guan & Zhanyi Jiao & Ruodu Wang, 2022. "A reverse ES (CVaR) optimization formula," Papers 2203.02599, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
- Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2016. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1056-1072, October.
- Daniel Bartl & Samuel Drapeau & Ludovic Tangpi, 2017. "Computational aspects of robust optimized certainty equivalents and option pricing," Papers 1706.10186, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
- Kai Barron, 2021.
"Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
- Barron, Kai, 2021. "Belief updating: does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58.
- Barron, Kai, 2016. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
- Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2019.
- Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief Updating: Does the \'Good-News, Bad-News\' Asymmetry Extend to Purely Financial Domains?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 170, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
- Barron, Kai, 2020. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r2, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2020.
- Barron, Kai, 2018. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," MPRA Paper 84742, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yi Shen & Zachary Van Oosten & Ruodu Wang, 2024. "Partial Law Invariance and Risk Measures," Papers 2401.17265, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
- Kataria, Mitesh, 2017. "How long do you think it will take? Field Evidence on Gender Differences in Time Optimism," Working Papers in Economics 694, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Ruodu Wang & Ričardas Zitikis, 2021. "An Axiomatic Foundation for the Expected Shortfall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1413-1429, March.
- Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng & Chris C. Heyde, 2013. "External Risk Measures and Basel Accords," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 393-417, August.
- Luciano Castro & Antonio F. Galvao, 2022. "Static and dynamic quantile preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(2), pages 747-779, April.
- Cheung, Stephen L. & Johnstone, Lachlan, 2017. "True Overconfidence, Revealed through Actions: An Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 10545, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Hirbod Assa & Peng Liu, 2024. "Factor risk measures," Papers 2404.08475, arXiv.org.
More about this item
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-MIC-2023-08-21 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2023-08-21 (Risk Management)
- NEP-UPT-2023-08-21 (Utility Models and Prospect Theory)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2307.02422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.