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Unveiling the Potential of Sentiment: Can Large Language Models Predict Chinese Stock Price Movements?

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Listed:
  • Haohan Zhang
  • Fengrui Hua
  • Chengjin Xu
  • Hao Kong
  • Ruiting Zuo
  • Jian Guo

Abstract

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has spurred discussions about their potential to enhance quantitative trading strategies. LLMs excel in analyzing sentiments about listed companies from financial news, providing critical insights for trading decisions. However, the performance of LLMs in this task varies substantially due to their inherent characteristics. This paper introduces a standardized experimental procedure for comprehensive evaluations. We detail the methodology using three distinct LLMs, each embodying a unique approach to performance enhancement, applied specifically to the task of sentiment factor extraction from large volumes of Chinese news summaries. Subsequently, we develop quantitative trading strategies using these sentiment factors and conduct back-tests in realistic scenarios. Our results will offer perspectives about the performances of Large Language Models applied to extracting sentiments from Chinese news texts.

Suggested Citation

  • Haohan Zhang & Fengrui Hua & Chengjin Xu & Hao Kong & Ruiting Zuo & Jian Guo, 2023. "Unveiling the Potential of Sentiment: Can Large Language Models Predict Chinese Stock Price Movements?," Papers 2306.14222, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2306.14222
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.14222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alejandro Lopez-Lira & Yuehua Tang, 2023. "Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models," Papers 2304.07619, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rick Steinert & Saskia Altmann, 2023. "Linking microblogging sentiments to stock price movement: An application of GPT-4," Papers 2308.16771, arXiv.org.
    2. Raeid Saqur, 2024. "What Teaches Robots to Walk, Teaches Them to Trade too -- Regime Adaptive Execution using Informed Data and LLMs," Papers 2406.15508, arXiv.org.
    3. Liping Wang & Jiawei Li & Lifan Zhao & Zhizhuo Kou & Xiaohan Wang & Xinyi Zhu & Hao Wang & Yanyan Shen & Lei Chen, 2023. "Methods for Acquiring and Incorporating Knowledge into Stock Price Prediction: A Survey," Papers 2308.04947, arXiv.org.
    4. Raeid Saqur & Ken Kato & Nicholas Vinden & Frank Rudzicz, 2024. "NIFTY Financial News Headlines Dataset," Papers 2405.09747, arXiv.org.

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