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Credit Information in Earnings Calls

Author

Listed:
  • Harry Mamaysky
  • Yiwen Shen
  • Hongyu Wu

Abstract

We develop a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from the text of quarterly earnings calls. This information is not spanned by fundamental or market variables and forecasts future credit spread changes. One reason for such forecastability is that our text-based measure predicts future credit spread risk and firm profitability. More firm- and call-level complexity increase the forecasting power of our measure for spread changes. Out-of-sample portfolio tests show the information in our measure is valuable for investors. Both results suggest that investors do not fully internalize the credit-relevant information contained in earnings calls.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry Mamaysky & Yiwen Shen & Hongyu Wu, 2022. "Credit Information in Earnings Calls," Papers 2209.11914, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.11914
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    2. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    5. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
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