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Risk Filtering and Risk-Averse Control of Markovian Systems Subject to Model Uncertainty

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  • Tomasz R. Bielecki
  • Igor Cialenco
  • Andrzej Ruszczy'nski

Abstract

We consider a Markov decision process subject to model uncertainty in a Bayesian framework, where we assume that the state process is observed but its law is unknown to the observer. In addition, while the state process and the controls are observed at time $t$, the actual cost that may depend on the unknown parameter is not known at time $t$. The controller optimizes total cost by using a family of special risk measures, that we call risk filters and that are appropriately defined to take into account the model uncertainty of the controlled system. These key features lead to non-standard and non-trivial risk-averse control problems, for which we derive the Bellman principle of optimality. We illustrate the general theory on two practical examples: optimal investment and clinical trials.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Andrzej Ruszczy'nski, 2022. "Risk Filtering and Risk-Averse Control of Markovian Systems Subject to Model Uncertainty," Papers 2206.09235, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2206.09235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicole Bäuerle & Ulrich Rieder, 2014. "More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 105-120, February.
    2. Bäuerle, Nicole & Rieder, Ulrich, 2017. "Zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic games," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 622-642.
    3. Mark H A Davis & Sébastien Lleo, 2014. "Risk-Sensitive Investment Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9026, August.
    4. Jingnan Fan & Andrzej Ruszczyński, 2018. "Risk measurement and risk-averse control of partially observable discrete-time Markov systems," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 88(2), pages 161-184, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marlon Moresco & M'elina Mailhot & Silvana M. Pesenti, 2023. "Uncertainty Propagation and Dynamic Robust Risk Measures," Papers 2308.12856, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

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