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From prediction markets to interpretable collective intelligence

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  • Alexey V. Osipov
  • Nikolay N. Osipov

Abstract

We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form and interprets this probability. Namely, we provide strong arguments for the possibility of the development of a self-resolving prediction market with play money that incentivizes direct information exchange between experts. Such a system could, in particular, motivate simultaneously many experts to collectively solve scientific or medical problems in a very efficient manner. We also note that in our considerations, experts are not assumed to be Bayesian.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexey V. Osipov & Nikolay N. Osipov, 2022. "From prediction markets to interpretable collective intelligence," Papers 2204.13424, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.13424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
    2. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities," Working Paper Series 2006-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Weinstock, Eyal & Sonsino, Doron, 2014. "Are risk-seekers more optimistic? Non-parametric approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 236-251.
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