IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2203.02834.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a systematic review of long-term energy scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Fabian Scheller
  • Stefan Wald
  • Hendrik Kondziella
  • Philipp Andreas Gunkel
  • Thomas Bruckner
  • Dogan Keles

Abstract

Determining the development of Germany's energy system by taking the energy transition objectives into account is the subject of a series of studies. Since their assumptions and results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides a comparative assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers. Twelve energy studies were selected and 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the two carriers will play an important future role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24% of the final energy demand). A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 5 bn EUR/a in 2030 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. By 2050, these effects will increase to almost 16 bn EUR/a. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported. Despite of all the advantages, the construction of the facilities is associated with high costs which should be not neglected in the discussion.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Scheller & Stefan Wald & Hendrik Kondziella & Philipp Andreas Gunkel & Thomas Bruckner & Dogan Keles, 2022. "Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a systematic review of long-term energy scenarios," Papers 2203.02834, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2203.02834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.02834
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jochen Markard, 2018. "The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 628-633, August.
    2. McKenna, R.C. & Bchini, Q. & Weinand, J.M. & Michaelis, J. & König, S. & Köppel, W. & Fichtner, W., 2018. "The future role of Power-to-Gas in the energy transition: Regional and local techno-economic analyses in Baden-Württemberg," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 386-400.
    3. Szarka, Nora & Eichhorn, Marcus & Kittler, Ronny & Bezama, Alberto & Thrän, Daniela, 2017. "Interpreting long-term energy scenarios and the role of bioenergy in Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1222-1233.
    4. Hanley, Emma S. & Deane, JP & Gallachóir, BP Ó, 2018. "The role of hydrogen in low carbon energy futures–A review of existing perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3027-3045.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kondziella, Hendrik & Specht, Karl & Lerch, Philipp & Scheller, Fabian & Bruckner, Thomas, 2023. "The techno-economic potential of large-scale hydrogen storage in Germany for a climate-neutral energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Chunmeng & Bu, Siqi & Fan, Yi & Wan, Wayne Xinwei & Wang, Ruoheng & Foley, Aoife, 2023. "Data-driven prediction and evaluation on future impact of energy transition policies in smart regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    2. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Bai, Hua, 2020. "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Integrated Energy Systems with bi-directional conversion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Farrokhifar, Meisam & Nie, Yinghui & Pozo, David, 2020. "Energy systems planning: A survey on models for integrated power and natural gas networks coordination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    5. Dehler-Holland, Joris & Schumacher, Kira & Fichtner, Wolf, 2021. "Topic Modeling Uncovers Shifts in Media Framing of the German Renewable Energy Act," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 2(1).
    6. Radtke, Jörg & Scherhaufer, Patrick, 2022. "A social science perspective on conflicts in the energy transition: An introduction to the special issue," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Li, Aitong & Xu, Yuan & Shiroyama, Hideaki, 2019. "Solar lobby and energy transition in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Fridgen, Gilbert & Keller, Robert & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Schöpf, Michael, 2020. "A holistic view on sector coupling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Mikovits, Christian & Wetterlund, Elisabeth & Wehrle, Sebastian & Baumgartner, Johann & Schmidt, Johannes, 2021. "Stronger together: Multi-annual variability of hydrogen production supported by wind power in Sweden," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    10. Melliger, Marc, 2023. "Quantifying technology skewness in European multi-technology auctions and the effect of design elements and other driving factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Zhao, Kai & Tian, Zhenyu & Zhang, Jinrui & Lu, Buchu & Hao, Yong, 2023. "Methanol steam reforming reactor with fractal tree-shaped structures for photovoltaic–thermochemical hybrid power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PB).
    12. Su, Xiang & Tan, Junlan, 2023. "Regional energy transition path and the role of government support and resource endowment in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    13. Xu, Jiacheng & Liang, Yingzong & Luo, Xianglong & Chen, Jianyong & Yang, Zhi & Chen, Ying, 2023. "Towards cost-effective osmotic power harnessing: Mass exchanger network synthesis for multi-stream pressure-retarded osmosis systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PA).
    14. Qi, Ye & Lu, Jiaqi & Liu, Tianle, 2024. "Measuring energy transition away from fossil fuels: A new index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    15. Henni, Sarah & Staudt, Philipp & Kandiah, Balendra & Weinhardt, Christof, 2021. "Infrastructural coupling of the electricity and gas distribution grid to reduce renewable energy curtailment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    16. Tomas Macak & Jan Hron & Jaromir Stusek, 2020. "A Causal Model of the Sustainable Use of Resources: A Case Study on a Woodworking Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Andersen, Allan Dahl & Markard, Jochen, 2020. "Multi-technology interaction in socio-technical transitions: How recent dynamics in HVDC technology can inform transition theories," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Stöckl, Fabian & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2021. "Optimal supply chains and power sector benefits of green hydrogen," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11.
    19. Karolina Bähr & Alexander Fliaster, 2023. "The twofold transition: Framing digital innovations and incumbents' value propositions for sustainability," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 920-935, February.
    20. Thomas Pownall & Iain Soutar & Catherine Mitchell, 2021. "Re-Designing GB’s Electricity Market Design: A Conceptual Framework Which Recognises the Value of Distributed Energy Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2203.02834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.