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Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a systematic review of long-term energy scenarios

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  • Fabian Scheller
  • Stefan Wald
  • Hendrik Kondziella
  • Philipp Andreas Gunkel
  • Thomas Bruckner
  • Dogan Keles

Abstract

Determining the development of Germany's energy system by taking the energy transition objectives into account is the subject of a series of studies. Since their assumptions and results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides a comparative assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers. Twelve energy studies were selected and 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the two carriers will play an important future role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24% of the final energy demand). A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 5 bn EUR/a in 2030 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. By 2050, these effects will increase to almost 16 bn EUR/a. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported. Despite of all the advantages, the construction of the facilities is associated with high costs which should be not neglected in the discussion.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Scheller & Stefan Wald & Hendrik Kondziella & Philipp Andreas Gunkel & Thomas Bruckner & Dogan Keles, 2022. "Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a systematic review of long-term energy scenarios," Papers 2203.02834, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2203.02834
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jochen Markard, 2018. "The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 628-633, August.
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    3. Szarka, Nora & Eichhorn, Marcus & Kittler, Ronny & Bezama, Alberto & Thrän, Daniela, 2017. "Interpreting long-term energy scenarios and the role of bioenergy in Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1222-1233.
    4. Hanley, Emma S. & Deane, JP & Gallachóir, BP Ó, 2018. "The role of hydrogen in low carbon energy futures–A review of existing perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3027-3045.
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    1. Kondziella, Hendrik & Specht, Karl & Lerch, Philipp & Scheller, Fabian & Bruckner, Thomas, 2023. "The techno-economic potential of large-scale hydrogen storage in Germany for a climate-neutral energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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