IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2109.02082.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonparametric Extrema Analysis in Time Series for Envelope Extraction, Peak Detection and Clustering

Author

Listed:
  • Kaan Gokcesu
  • Hakan Gokcesu

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a nonparametric approach that can be used in envelope extraction, peak-burst detection and clustering in time series. Our problem formalization results in a naturally defined splitting/forking of the time series. With a possibly hierarchical implementation, it can be used for various applications in machine learning, signal processing and mathematical finance. From an incoming input signal, our iterative procedure sequentially creates two signals (one upper bounding and one lower bounding signal) by minimizing the cumulative $L_1$ drift. We show that a solution can be efficiently calculated by use of a Viterbi-like path tracking algorithm together with an optimal elimination rule. We consider many interesting settings, where our algorithm has near-linear time complexities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaan Gokcesu & Hakan Gokcesu, 2021. "Nonparametric Extrema Analysis in Time Series for Envelope Extraction, Peak Detection and Clustering," Papers 2109.02082, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.02082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.02082
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Peter & Peng, Liang & Yao, Qiwei, 2002. "Moving-maximum models for extrema of time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6084, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Treynor, Jack L & Ferguson, Robert, 1985. "In Defense of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 757-773, July.
    3. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trifan, Emanuela, 2004. "Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 131, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    3. Andreas Thomann, 2021. "Multi-asset scenario building for trend-following trading strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 293-315, April.
    4. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    5. Skouras, Spyros, 2001. "Financial returns and efficiency as seen by an artificial technical analyst," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 213-244, January.
    6. Wang, Shan & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Li, Sai-Ping & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2015. "Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 439(C), pages 114-123.
    7. Gu, Ming & Sun, Minxing & Xiong, Zhitao & Xu, Weike, 2024. "Market volatility and the trend factor," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Shan Wang & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Sai-Ping Li & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2015. "Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese market," Papers 1504.06397, arXiv.org.
    9. Han, Yufeng & Zhou, Guofu & Zhu, Yingzi, 2016. "A trend factor: Any economic gains from using information over investment horizons?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 352-375.
    10. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    11. Andrew Detzel & Hong Liu & Jack Strauss & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2021. "Learning and predictability via technical analysis: Evidence from bitcoin and stocks with hard‐to‐value fundamentals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 107-137, March.
    12. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Hsu, Yu-Chin & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2010. "Testing the predictive ability of technical analysis using a new stepwise test without data snooping bias," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-484, June.
    13. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Wing-Kam Ng & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2014. "Revisiting the Performance of MACD and RSI Oscillators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, February.
    14. Hai Lin & Pengfei Liu & Cheng Zhang, 2023. "The trend premium around the world: Evidence from the stock market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 317-358, June.
    15. Alessandro Beber, 1999. "Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria," Alea Tech Reports 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    16. Matheus José Silva de Souza & Danilo Guimarães Franco Ramos & Marina Garcia Pena & Vinicius Amorim Sobreiro & Herbert Kimura, 2018. "Examination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Paskalis Glabadanidis, 2014. "The Market Timing Power of Moving Averages: Evidence from US REITs and REIT Indexes," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 161-202, June.
    18. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2015. "Buy and sell signals on Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89014, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2016.
    19. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    20. Paskalis Glabadanidis, 2017. "Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 353-394, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.02082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.