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Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Inverse Propensity Weighting via Quantile Balancing

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  • Jacob Dorn
  • Kevin Guo

Abstract

Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been measured. This paper introduces a robust sensitivity analysis for IPW that estimates the range of treatment effects compatible with a given amount of unobserved confounding. The estimated range converges to the narrowest possible interval (under the given assumptions) that must contain the true treatment effect. Our proposal is a refinement of the influential sensitivity analysis by Zhao, Small, and Bhattacharya (2019), which we show gives bounds that are too wide even asymptotically. This analysis is based on new partial identification results for Tan (2006)'s marginal sensitivity model.

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  • Jacob Dorn & Kevin Guo, 2021. "Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Inverse Propensity Weighting via Quantile Balancing," Papers 2102.04543, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.04543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2017. "Cross-fitting and fast remainder rates for semiparametric estimation," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Arie Beresteanu & Ilya Molchanov & Francesca Molinari, 2011. "Sharp Identification Regions in Models With Convex Moment Predictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1785-1821, November.
    3. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, July.
    4. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier & Linqi Zhang, 2024. "Assessing Sensitivity to Unconfoundedness: Estimation and Inference," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 1-13, January.
    5. Kwun Chuen Gary Chan & Sheung Chi Phillip Yam & Zheng Zhang, 2016. "Globally efficient non-parametric inference of average treatment effects by empirical balancing calibration weighting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(3), pages 673-700, June.
    6. Rosenbaum, Paul R., 2010. "Design Sensitivity and Efficiency in Observational Studies," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 692-702.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosenman Evan T. R. & Owen Art B., 2021. "Designing experiments informed by observational studies," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 147-171, January.
    2. Jacob Dorn & Kevin Guo & Nathan Kallus, 2021. "Doubly-Valid/Doubly-Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference with Unmeasured Confounding," Papers 2112.11449, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Ashesh Rambachan & Amanda Coston & Edward Kennedy, 2022. "Robust Design and Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms under Unobserved Confounding," Papers 2212.09844, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    4. Vira Semenova, 2023. "Aggregated Intersection Bounds and Aggregated Minimax Values," Papers 2303.00982, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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