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Twofold Multiprior Preferences and Failures of Contingent Reasoning

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  • Federico Echenique
  • Masaki Miyashita
  • Yuta Nakamura
  • Luciano Pomatto
  • Jamie Vinson

Abstract

We propose a model of incomplete \textit{twofold multiprior preferences}, in which an act $f$ is ranked above an act $g$ only when $f$ provides higher utility in a worst-case scenario than what $g$ provides in a best-case scenario. The model explains failures of contingent reasoning, captured through a weakening of the state-by-state monotonicity (or dominance) axiom. Our model gives rise to rich comparative statics results, as well as extension exercises, and connections to choice theory. We present an application to second-price auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Echenique & Masaki Miyashita & Yuta Nakamura & Luciano Pomatto & Jamie Vinson, 2020. "Twofold Multiprior Preferences and Failures of Contingent Reasoning," Papers 2012.14557, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2012.14557
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    3. Valenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé, 2023. "Subjective complexity under uncertainty," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4mz932j6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Shengwu Li, 2024. "Designing Simple Mechanisms," Papers 2403.18694, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.

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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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