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COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu Liu
  • Philippe Ciais
  • Zhu Deng
  • Ruixue Lei
  • Steven J. Davis
  • Sha Feng
  • Bo Zheng
  • Duo Cui
  • Xinyu Dou
  • Pan He
  • Biqing Zhu
  • Chenxi Lu
  • Piyu Ke
  • Taochun Sun
  • Yuan Wang
  • Xu Yue
  • Yilong Wang
  • Yadong Lei
  • Hao Zhou
  • Zhaonan Cai
  • Yuhui Wu
  • Runtao Guo
  • Tingxuan Han
  • Jinjun Xue
  • Olivier Boucher
  • Eulalie Boucher
  • Frederic Chevallier
  • Yimin Wei
  • Haiwang Zhong
  • Chongqing Kang
  • Ning Zhang
  • Bin Chen
  • Fengming Xi
  • Franc{c}ois Marie
  • Qiang Zhang
  • Dabo Guan
  • Peng Gong
  • Daniel M. Kammen
  • Kebin He
  • Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Abstract

The considerable cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions. Here we show the unprecedented decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions from January to April 2020 was of 7.8% (938 Mt CO2 with a +6.8% of 2-{\sigma} uncertainty) when compared with the period last year. In addition other emerging estimates of COVID impacts based on monthly energy supply or estimated parameters, this study contributes to another step that constructed the near-real-time daily CO2 emission inventories based on activity from power generation (for 29 countries), industry (for 73 countries), road transportation (for 406 cities), aviation and maritime transportation and commercial and residential sectors emissions (for 206 countries). The estimates distinguished the decline of CO2 due to COVID-19 from the daily, weekly and seasonal variations as well as the holiday events. The COVID-related decreases in CO2 emissions in road transportation (340.4 Mt CO2, -15.5%), power (292.5 Mt CO2, -6.4% compared to 2019), industry (136.2 Mt CO2, -4.4%), aviation (92.8 Mt CO2, -28.9%), residential (43.4 Mt CO2, -2.7%), and international shipping (35.9Mt CO2, -15%). Regionally, decreases in China were the largest and earliest (234.5 Mt CO2,-6.9%), followed by Europe (EU-27 & UK) (138.3 Mt CO2, -12.0%) and the U.S. (162.4 Mt CO2, -9.5%). The declines of CO2 are consistent with regional nitrogen oxides concentrations observed by satellites and ground-based networks, but the calculated signal of emissions decreases (about 1Gt CO2) will have little impacts (less than 0.13ppm by April 30, 2020) on the overserved global CO2 concertation. However, with observed fast CO2 recovery in China and partial re-opening globally, our findings suggest the longer-term effects on CO2 emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu Liu & Philippe Ciais & Zhu Deng & Ruixue Lei & Steven J. Davis & Sha Feng & Bo Zheng & Duo Cui & Xinyu Dou & Pan He & Biqing Zhu & Chenxi Lu & Piyu Ke & Taochun Sun & Yuan Wang & Xu Yue & Yilong W, 2020. "COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions," Papers 2004.13614, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.13614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
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    2. Xiaoqian Sun & Sebastian Wandelt & Hartmut Fricke & Judith Rosenow, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transportation Network in the United States, Europe, and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Mehdi Chihib & Esther Salmerón-Manzano & Mimoun Chourak & Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Energy Use at the University of Almeria (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Zhang, Dongna & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Xu, Bing, 2023. "Implications of cryptocurrency energy usage on climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Veronika Harantová & Ambróz Hájnik & Alica Kalašová & Tomasz Figlus, 2022. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Traffic Flow Characteristics, Emissions Production and Fuel Consumption at a Selected Intersection in Slovakia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Smith, L. Vanessa & Tarui, Nori & Yamagata, Takashi, 2021. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Ma, Chao-qun, 2021. "Air quality, COVID-19, and the oil market: Evidence from China’s provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-72.
    8. Shen,Chang & Alberini,Anna & Timilsina,Govinda R., 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity Generation : An Empirical Investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10116, The World Bank.
    9. de Lucas Ancillo, Antonio & Gavrila Gavrila, Sorin, 2023. "The Impact of Research and Development on Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Digitization and Digital transformation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Zhu Liu & Biqing Zhu & Philippe Ciais & Steven J. Davis & Chenxi Lu & Haiwang Zhong & Piyu Ke & Yanan Cui & Zhu Deng & Duo Cui & Taochun Sun & Xinyu Dou & Jianguang Tan & Rui Guo & Bo Zheng & Katsumas, 2021. "De-carbonization of global energy use during the COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2102.03240, arXiv.org.
    11. Cao, Jidi & Chen, Xin & Qiu, Rui & Hou, Shuhua, 2021. "Electric vehicle industry sustainable development with a stakeholder engagement system," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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