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Market states: A new understanding

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  • Hirdesh K. Pharasi
  • Eduard Seligman
  • Thomas H. Seligman

Abstract

We present the clustering analysis of the financial markets of S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN) markets over a period of 2006-2019 as an example of a complex system. We investigate the statistical properties of correlation matrices constructed from the sliding epochs. The correlation matrices can be classified into different clusters, named as market states based on the similarity of correlation structures. We cluster the S&P 500 market into four and Nikkei 225 into six market states by optimizing the value of intracluster distances. The market shows transitions between these market states and the statistical properties of the transitions to critical market states can indicate likely precursors to the catastrophic events. We also analyze the same clustering technique on surrogate data constructed from average correlations of market states and the fluctuations arise due to the white noise of short time series. We use the correlated Wishart orthogonal ensemble for the construction of surrogate data whose average correlation equals the average of the real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirdesh K. Pharasi & Eduard Seligman & Thomas H. Seligman, 2020. "Market states: A new understanding," Papers 2003.07058, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.07058
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    Cited by:

    1. Heckens, Anton J. & Guhr, Thomas, 2022. "New collectivity measures for financial covariances and correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    2. Isobel Seabrook & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "An Information Filtering approach to stress testing: an application to FTSE markets," Papers 2106.08778, arXiv.org.
    3. Hirdesh K. Pharasi & Suchetana Sadhukhan & Parisa Majari & Anirban Chakraborti & Thomas H. Seligman, 2021. "Dynamics of the market states in the space of correlation matrices with applications to financial markets," Papers 2107.05663, arXiv.org.
    4. Pharasi, Hirdesh K. & Seligman, Eduard & Sadhukhan, Suchetana & Majari, Parisa & Seligman, Thomas H., 2024. "Dynamics of market states and risk assessment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 633(C).
    5. Vishwas Kukreti & Hirdesh K. Pharasi & Priya Gupta & Sunil Kumar, 2020. "A perspective on correlation-based financial networks and entropy measures," Papers 2004.09448, arXiv.org.
    6. Seabrook, Isobel & Caccioli, Fabio & Aste, Tomaso, 2022. "Quantifying impact and response in markets using information filtering networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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