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An extended Speculation Game for the recovery of Hurst exponent of financial time series

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  • Kei Katahira
  • Yu Chen

Abstract

The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a divergence from the behavior of real market. The market price of the model tends to be anti-persistent to the initial price, resulting in the quite small value of Hurst exponent of price change. To overcome this problem, we extend the speculation game by introducing a perturbative part to the price change with the consideration of other effects besides pure speculative behaviors.

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  • Kei Katahira & Yu Chen, 2019. "An extended Speculation Game for the recovery of Hurst exponent of financial time series," Papers 1909.02899, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1909.02899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    2. Kei Katahira & Yu Chen & Gaku Hashimoto & Hiroshi Okuda, 2019. "Development of an agent-based speculation game for higher reproducibility of financial stylized facts," Papers 1902.02040, arXiv.org.
    3. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 170-196, June.
    4. Katahira, Kei & Chen, Yu & Hashimoto, Gaku & Okuda, Hiroshi, 2019. "Development of an agent-based speculation game for higher reproducibility of financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 503-518.
    5. Gopikrishnan, P & Plerou, V & Liu, Y & Amaral, L.A.N & Gabaix, X & Stanley, H.E, 2000. "Scaling and correlation in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 362-373.
    6. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
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