IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1906.11186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Triptych Approach for Reverse Stress Testing of Complex Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Pascal Traccucci
  • Luc Dumontier
  • Guillaume Garchery
  • Benjamin Jacot

Abstract

The quest for diversification has led to an increasing number of complex funds with a high number of strategies and non-linear payoffs. The new generation of Alternative Risk Premia (ARP) funds are an example that has been very popular in recent years. For complex funds like these, a Reverse Stress Test (RST) is regarded by the industry and regulators as a better forward-looking risk measure than a Value-at-Risk (VaR). We present an Extended RST (ERST) triptych approach with three variables: level of plausibility, level of loss and scenario. In our approach, any two of these variables can be derived by providing the third as the input. We advocate and demonstrate that ERST is a powerful tool for both simple linear and complex portfolios and for both risk management as well as day-to-day portfolio management decisions. An updated new version of the Levenberg - Marquardt optimization algorithm is introduced to derive ERST in certain complex cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Traccucci & Luc Dumontier & Guillaume Garchery & Benjamin Jacot, 2019. "A Triptych Approach for Reverse Stress Testing of Complex Portfolios," Papers 1906.11186, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1906.11186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1906.11186
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natalie Packham & Fabian Woebbeking, 2018. "A factor-model approach for correlation scenarios and correlation stress-testing," Papers 1807.11381, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    2. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    3. Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2005. "Value-At-Risk And Expected Shortfall For Linear Portfolios With Elliptically Distributed Risk Factors," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(05), pages 537-551.
    4. Paul Glasserman & Chulmin Kang & Wanmo Kang, 2013. "Stress Scenario Selection by Empirical Likelihood," Working Papers 13-07, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    5. Packham, N. & Woebbeking, C.F., 2019. "A factor-model approach for correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 92-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. N. Packham & F. Woebbeking, 2021. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Papers 2107.06839, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Packham, Natalie & Woebbeking, Fabian, 2021. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-012, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    3. Packham, N. & Woebbeking, F., 2023. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 55-67.
    4. Aigner, Philipp & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2023. "Enhancing gradient capital allocation with orthogonal convexity scenarios," ICIR Working Paper Series 47/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    5. Bookstaber, Rick & Cetina, Jill & Feldberg, Greg & Flood, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 2013. "Stress tests to promote financial stability: Assessing progress and looking to the future," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 16-25, December.
    6. Bryan Lim & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2020. "Detecting Changes in Asset Co-Movement Using the Autoencoder Reconstruction Ratio," Papers 2002.02008, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    7. Pilkington, Marc, 2022. "The London Whale Scandal under new Scrutiny," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Dror Y. Kenett & Sary Levy-Carciente & Adam Avakian & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2015. "Dynamical Macroprudential Stress Testing Using Network Theory," Working Papers 15-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    9. Chibane, Messaoud & Gabriel, Amadeus & Giménez Roche, Gabriel A., 2022. "Credit booms and crisis-emergent asset comovement: The problem of latent correlation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 270-279.
    10. Fabian Woebbeking, 2021. "Cryptocurrency volatility markets," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 273-298, December.
    11. Levy-Carciente, Sary & Kenett, Dror Y. & Avakian, Adam & Stanley, H. Eugene & Havlin, Shlomo, 2015. "Dynamical macroprudential stress testing using network theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 164-181.
    12. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.
    13. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    14. Raymond BRUMMELHUIS & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem, 2009. "Var For Quadratic Portfolio'S With Generalized Laplace Distributed Returns," Working Papers 09-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jun 2009.
    15. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Abdelaziz Rouabah & John Theal, 2010. "Stress testing: The impact of shocks on the capital needs of the Luxembourg banking sector," BCL working papers 47, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Stelios Bekiros & Nikolaos Loukeris & Iordanis Eleftheriadis & Christos Avdoulas, 2019. "Tail-Related Risk Measurement and Forecasting in Equity Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 783-816, February.
    18. Jules Sadefo-Kamdem, 2011. "Downside Risk And Kappa Index Of Non-Gaussian Portfolio With Lpm," Working Papers hal-00733043, HAL.
    19. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Terraza, M., 2014. "Fuzzy value-at-risk and expected shortfall for portfolios with heavy-tailed returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 247-256.
    20. Azamat Abdymomunov & Sharon Blei & Bakhodir Ergashev, 2015. "Integrating Stress Scenarios into Risk Quantification Models," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 57-79, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1906.11186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.