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Economic resilience from input-output susceptibility improves predictions of economic growth and recovery

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  • Peter Klimek
  • Sebastian Poledna
  • Stefan Thurner

Abstract

Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks. Here we focus on resilience as a nonequilibrium property of networked production systems and develop a linear response theory for input-output economics. By calibrating the framework to data from 56 industrial sectors in 43 countries between 2000 and 2014, we find that the susceptibility of individual industrial sectors to economic shocks varies greatly across countries, sectors, and time. We show that susceptibility-based predictions that take sector- and country-specific recovery into account, outperform--by far--standard econometric growth-models. Our results are analytically rigorous, empirically testable, and flexible enough to address policy-relevant scenarios. We illustrate the latter by estimating the impact of recently imposed tariffs on US imports (steel and aluminum) on specific sectors across European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Klimek & Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2019. "Economic resilience from input-output susceptibility improves predictions of economic growth and recovery," Papers 1903.03203, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1903.03203
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1903.03203
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    Cited by:

    1. Fessina, Massimiliano & Zaccaria, Andrea & Cimini, Giulio & Squartini, Tiziano, 2024. "Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: A manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. A. Jovanović & P. Klimek & O. Renn & R. Schneider & K. Øien & J. Brown & M. DiGennaro & Y. Liu & V. Pfau & M. Jelić & T. Rosen & B. Caillard & S. Chakravarty & P. Chhantyal, 2020. "Assessing resilience of healthcare infrastructure exposed to COVID-19: emerging risks, resilience indicators, interdependencies and international standards," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 252-286, June.
    3. Elias Giannakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas, 2022. "Labour productivity and regional labour markets resilience in Europe," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 691-712, June.
    4. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Jesse M. Keenan & Benjamin D. Trump & William Hynes & Igor Linkov, 2021. "Exploring the Convergence of Resilience Processes and Sustainable Outcomes in Post-COVID, Post-Glasgow Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Vibeke S. Norstebø & Fabian R. Aponte & Moana S. Simas & Tina Andersen & Gerardo A. Perez-Valdes, 2023. "Circular Economy and the triple bottom line in Norway," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, March.
    7. Mitja Steinbacher & Matthias Raddant & Fariba Karimi & Eva Camacho Cuena & Simone Alfarano & Giulia Iori & Thomas Lux, 2021. "Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Anastasios Kitsos & André Carrascal-Incera & Raquel Ortega-Argilés, 2019. "The Role of Embeddedness on Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from the UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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