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Using Deep Learning for price prediction by exploiting stationary limit order book features

Author

Listed:
  • Avraam Tsantekidis
  • Nikolaos Passalis
  • Anastasios Tefas
  • Juho Kanniainen
  • Moncef Gabbouj
  • Alexandros Iosifidis

Abstract

The recent surge in Deep Learning (DL) research of the past decade has successfully provided solutions to many difficult problems. The field of quantitative analysis has been slowly adapting the new methods to its problems, but due to problems such as the non-stationary nature of financial data, significant challenges must be overcome before DL is fully utilized. In this work a new method to construct stationary features, that allows DL models to be applied effectively, is proposed. These features are thoroughly tested on the task of predicting mid price movements of the Limit Order Book. Several DL models are evaluated, such as recurrent Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). Finally a novel model that combines the ability of CNNs to extract useful features and the ability of LSTMs' to analyze time series, is proposed and evaluated. The combined model is able to outperform the individual LSTM and CNN models in the prediction horizons that are tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Avraam Tsantekidis & Nikolaos Passalis & Anastasios Tefas & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2018. "Using Deep Learning for price prediction by exploiting stationary limit order book features," Papers 1810.09965, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1810.09965
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1810.09965
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Alec N. Kercheval & Yuan Zhang, 2015. "Modelling high-frequency limit order book dynamics with support vector machines," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 1315-1329, August.
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    4. Yang, Dennis & Zhang, Qiang, 2000. "Drift-Independent Volatility Estimation Based on High, Low, Open, and Close Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 477-491, July.
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    6. Siikanen, Milla & Kanniainen, Juho & Luoma, Arto, 2017. "What drives the sensitivity of limit order books to company announcement arrivals?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 65-68.
    7. Bandi, F.M. & Renò, R., 2016. "Price and volatility co-jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 107-146.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaos Passalis & Anastasios Tefas & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2019. "Deep Adaptive Input Normalization for Time Series Forecasting," Papers 1902.07892, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    2. Ali Raheman & Anton Kolonin & Alexey Glushchenko & Arseniy Fokin & Ikram Ansari, 2022. "Adaptive Multi-Strategy Market-Making Agent For Volatile Markets," Papers 2204.13265, arXiv.org.
    3. Adamantios Ntakaris & Giorgio Mirone & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2019. "Feature Engineering for Mid-Price Prediction with Deep Learning," Papers 1904.05384, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    4. Anton Kolonin & Ali Raheman & Mukul Vishwas & Ikram Ansari & Juan Pinzon & Alice Ho, 2022. "Causal Analysis of Generic Time Series Data Applied for Market Prediction," Papers 2204.12928, arXiv.org.
    5. Jonathan Sadighian, 2019. "Deep Reinforcement Learning in Cryptocurrency Market Making," Papers 1911.08647, arXiv.org.
    6. James Wallbridge, 2020. "Transformers for Limit Order Books," Papers 2003.00130, arXiv.org.
    7. Jonathan Sadighian, 2020. "Extending Deep Reinforcement Learning Frameworks in Cryptocurrency Market Making," Papers 2004.06985, arXiv.org.

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