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Population and trends in the global mean temperature

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  • Richard S. J. Tol

Abstract

The Fisher Ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population distribution and the trend in the temperature. I show that the trend in the global area-weighted average surface air temperature is different in key details from the population-weighted trend. I extend the index to include urbanization and the urban heat island effect. This substantially changes the trend again. I further extend the index to include international migration, but this has a minor impact on the trend.

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  • Richard S. J. Tol, 2016. "Population and trends in the global mean temperature," Papers 1612.09123, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1612.09123
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Surender Kumar & Madhu Khanna, 2019. "Temperature and production efficiency growth: empirical evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 209-229, September.

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