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Fractional Dynamics of Natural Growth and Memory Effect in Economics

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  • Valentina V. Tarasova
  • Vasily E. Tarasov

Abstract

A generalization of the economic model of natural growth, which takes into account the power-law memory effect, is suggested. The memory effect means the dependence of the process not only on the current state of the process, but also on the history of changes of this process in the past. For the mathematical description of the economic process with power-law memory we used the theory of derivatives of non-integer order and fractional-order differential equation. We propose equations take into account the effects of memory with one-parameter power-law damping. Solutions of these fractional differential equations are suggested. We proved that the growth and downturn of output depend on the memory effects. We demonstrate that the memory effect can lead to decrease of output instead of its growth, which is described by model without memory effect. Memory effect can lead to increase of output, rather than decrease, which is described by model without memory effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina V. Tarasova & Vasily E. Tarasov, 2016. "Fractional Dynamics of Natural Growth and Memory Effect in Economics," Papers 1612.09060, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1612.09060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laskin, Nick, 2000. "Fractional market dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 482-492.
    2. Scalas, Enrico & Gorenflo, Rudolf & Mainardi, Francesco, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 376-384.
    3. Tarasova, Valentina V. & Tarasov, Vasily E., 2017. "Logistic map with memory from economic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 84-91.
    4. Cartea, Álvaro & del-Castillo-Negrete, Diego, 2007. "Fractional diffusion models of option prices in markets with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 749-763.
    5. Mainardi, Francesco & Raberto, Marco & Gorenflo, Rudolf & Scalas, Enrico, 2000. "Fractional calculus and continuous-time finance II: the waiting-time distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 468-481.
    6. Vasily E. Tarasov & Valentina V. Tarasova, 2016. "Long and Short Memory in Economics: Fractional-Order Difference and Differentiation," Papers 1612.07903, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2017.
    7. Valentina V. Tarasova & Vasily E. Tarasov, 2017. "Economic interpretation of fractional derivatives," Papers 1712.09575, arXiv.org.
    8. Valentina V. Tarasova & Vasily E. Tarasov, 2017. "Logistic map with memory from economic model," Papers 1712.09092, arXiv.org.
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