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The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan

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  • Mikio Ito
  • Kiyotaka Maeda
  • Akihiko Noda

Abstract

This paper studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in the two major rice markets occurred. We also examine how government interventions affected the rice markets in Japan, which colonized Taiwan and Korea before World War II, and argue that the function of rice futures markets crucially depended on the differences in rice spot market's structure. The increased volume of imported rice of a different variety from domestic rice first disrupted the rice futures. Then, government intervention in the rice futures markets failed to improve the disruption. Changes in colonial rice cropping successfully improved the disruption, and colonial rice was promoted to unify the different varieties of inland and colonial rice.

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  • Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2014. "The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan," Papers 1404.5381, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1404.5381
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    Cited by:

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    3. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama & Álvarez-García José, 2024. "Non-Commodity Agricultural Price Hedging with Minimum Tracking Error Portfolios: The Case of Mexican Hass Avocado," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-28, September.
    4. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2017. "Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939," Papers 1704.00985, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
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    6. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2016. "Market Integration in the Prewar Japanese Rice Markets," Papers 1604.00148, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.

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