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Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Henaff

    (IAE Paris)

  • Ismail Laachir

    (UMA)

  • Francesco Russo

    (UMA)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts for the main stylized facts of the US natural gas market, such as seasonality and presence of price spikes. The second aspect of the paper is related to the quantification of model uncertainty related to the spot dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Henaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2013. "Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk," Papers 1312.3789, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1312.3789
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3789
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben Hambly & Sam Howison & Tino Kluge, 2009. "Modelling spikes and pricing swing options in electricity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 937-949.
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    8. Rama Cont, 2006. "Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments," Post-Print halshs-00002695, HAL.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beatriz Martínez, Beatriz Martínez & Hipòlit Torró, Hipòlit Torró, 2016. "Anatomy of Risk Premium in UK Natural Gas Futures," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232212, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    3. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    4. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 621-636.
    5. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    6. W. Ackooij & X. Warin, 2020. "On conditional cuts for stochastic dual dynamic programming," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(2), pages 173-199, June.
    7. Giorgia Callegaro & Luciano Campi & Valeria Giusto & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Utility indifference pricing and hedging for structured contracts in energy markets," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 85(2), pages 265-303, April.
    8. Lin Zhao & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2015. "Asset Pricing in Incomplete Markets: Valuing Gas Storage Capacity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-104/VI/DSF95, Tinbergen Institute.

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