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Trust in foreseeing neighbours - a novel threshold model of financial market

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  • Jan A. Lipski
  • Ryszard Kutner

Abstract

The three-state agent-based 2D model of financial markets in the version proposed by Giulia Iori in 2002 has been herein extended. We have introduced the increase of herding behaviour by modelling the altering trust of an agent in his nearest neighbours. The trust increases if the neighbour has foreseen the price change correctly and the trust decreases in the opposite case. Our version only slightly increases the number of parameters present in the Iori model. This version well reproduces the main stylized facts observed on financial markets. That is, it reproduces log-returns clustering, fat-tail log-returns distribution and power-law decay in time of the volatility autocorrelation function.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan A. Lipski & Ryszard Kutner, 2013. "Trust in foreseeing neighbours - a novel threshold model of financial market," Papers 1301.1824, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.1824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iori, Giulia, 2002. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October.
    2. Pawe{l} Sieczka & Janusz A. Ho{l}yst, 2007. "A threshold model of financial markets," Papers 0711.3106, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2008.
    3. J. Doyne Farmer & Duncan Foley, 2009. "The economy needs agent-based modelling," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 685-686, August.
    4. M. Cristelli & L. Pietronero & A. Zaccaria, 2011. "Critical Overview of Agent-Based Models for Economics," Papers 1101.1847, arXiv.org.
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    1. Jan A. Lipski & Ryszard Kutner, 2013. "Agent-Based Stock Market Model with Endogenous Agents' Impact," Papers 1310.0762, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.

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