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A proposal for impact-adjusted valuation: Critical leverage and execution risk

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  • Fabio Caccioli
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • J. Doyne Farmer

Abstract

The practice of valuation by marking-to-market with current trading prices is seriously flawed. Under leverage the problem is particularly dramatic: due to the concave form of market impact, selling always initially causes the expected leverage to increase. There is a critical leverage above which it is impossible to exit a portfolio without leverage going to infinity and bankruptcy becoming likely. Standard risk-management methods give no warning of this problem, which easily occurs for aggressively leveraged positions in illiquid markets. We propose an alternative accounting procedure based on the estimated market impact of liquidation that removes the illusion of profit. This should curb the leverage cycle and contribute to an enhanced stability of financial markets.

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  • Fabio Caccioli & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer, 2012. "A proposal for impact-adjusted valuation: Critical leverage and execution risk," Papers 1204.0922, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1204.0922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shanshan Jiang & Jie Wang & Ruiting Dong & Yutong Li & Min Xia, 2023. "Systemic Risk with Multi-Channel Risk Contagion in the Interbank Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
    3. Caccioli, Fabio & Shrestha, Munik & Moore, Cristopher & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2014. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 233-245.
    4. Thomas Breuer & Martin Summer & Branko Urošević, 2021. "Bank Solvency Stress Tests with Fire Sales (Thomas Breuer, Martin Summer, Branko Urošević)," Working Papers 235, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Susanne Still, 2014. "$L_p$ regularized portfolio optimization," Papers 1404.4040, arXiv.org.
    6. Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Susanne Still, 2016. "Liquidity Risk And Instabilities In Portfolio Optimization," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(05), pages 1-28, August.

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