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Price dynamics in a Markovian limit order market

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  • Rama Cont
  • Adrien De Larrard

Abstract

We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantities of interest such as the distribution of the duration between price changes, the distribution and autocorrelation of price changes, and the probability of an upward move in the price, {\it conditional} on the state of the order book. We study the diffusion limit of the price process and express the volatility of price changes in terms of parameters describing the arrival rates of buy and sell orders and cancelations. These analytical results provide some insight into the relation between order flow and price dynamics in order-driven markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Adrien De Larrard, 2011. "Price dynamics in a Markovian limit order market," Papers 1104.4596, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1104.4596
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, Lawrence E. & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2005. "The information content of the limit order book: evidence from NYSE specialist trading decisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-67, February.
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    4. Parlour, Christine A, 1998. "Price Dynamics in Limit Order Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 789-816.
    5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    6. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Lunde, Asger, 1998. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8bh079sq, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5478 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ioanid Rosu, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of the Limit Order Book," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4601-4641, November.
    10. Ioanid Rosu, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of the Limit Order Book," Post-Print hal-00515873, HAL.
    11. Robert F. Engle & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 159-188.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Papers 1809.08060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00777941 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ban Zheng & François Roueff & Frédéric Abergel, 2014. "Ergodicity and scaling limit of a constrained multivariate Hawkes process," Post-Print hal-00777941, HAL.
    4. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    5. Charles-Albert Lehalle, 2013. "Market Microstructure Knowledge Needed for Controlling an Intra-Day Trading Process," Papers 1302.4592, arXiv.org.
    6. Fabien Guilbaud & Huyên Pham, 2013. "Optimal high-frequency trading with limit and market orders," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 79-94, January.
    7. Ben Hambly & Jasdeep Kalsi & James Newbury, 2018. "Limit order books, diffusion approximations and reflected SPDEs: from microscopic to macroscopic models," Papers 1808.07107, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    8. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    9. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," CREATES Research Papers 2018-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Ban Zheng & Eric Moulines & Frédéric Abergel, 2013. "Price jump prediction in a limit order book," Post-Print hal-00684716, HAL.
    11. Olivier Gu'eant & Charles-Albert Lehalle & Joaquin Fernandez Tapia, 2011. "Optimal Portfolio Liquidation with Limit Orders," Papers 1106.3279, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    12. Korolev, V.Yu. & Chertok, A.V. & Korchagin, A.Yu. & Zeifman, A.I., 2015. "Modeling high-frequency order flow imbalance by functional limit theorems for two-sided risk processes," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 224-241.
    13. Ioane Muni Toke, 2013. "The order book as a queueing system: average depth and influence of the size of limit orders," Papers 1311.5661, arXiv.org.
    14. Ban Zheng & Franc{c}ois Roueff & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2013. "Ergodicity and scaling limit of a constrained multivariate Hawkes process," Papers 1301.5007, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
    15. Rama Cont & Arseniy Kukanov, 2012. "Optimal order placement in limit order markets," Working Papers hal-00737491, HAL.
    16. Marc Hoffmann & Mauricio Labadie & Charles-Albert Lehalle & Gilles Pagès & Huyên Pham & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2013. "Optimization And Statistical Methods For High Frequency Finance," Post-Print hal-01102785, HAL.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7391 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ioane Muni Toke, 2015. "The order book as a queueing system: average depth and influence of the size of limit orders," Post-Print hal-01006410, HAL.
    19. Rama Cont & Arseniy Kukanov, 2012. "Optimal order placement in limit order markets," Papers 1210.1625, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.

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