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Ambiguous Volatility, Possibility and Utility in Continuous Time

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  • Larry Epstein
  • Shaolin Ji

Abstract

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both the drift and volatility of the driving process. At a technical level, the analysis requires a significant departure from existing continuous time modeling because it cannot be done within a probability space framework. This is because ambiguity about volatility leads invariably to a set of nonequivalent priors, that is, to priors that disagree about which scenarios are possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2011. "Ambiguous Volatility, Possibility and Utility in Continuous Time," Papers 1103.1652, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.1652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1740-1786.
    2. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    3. Marcel Nutz, 2011. "A Quasi-Sure Approach to the Control of Non-Markovian Stochastic Differential Equations," Papers 1106.3273, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
    4. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    5. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    7. Jocelyne Bion-Nadal & Magali Kervarec, 2010. "Risk measuring under model uncertainty," Papers 1004.5524, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2010.
    8. Marcel Nutz, 2010. "Random G-expectations," Papers 1009.2168, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
    9. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 4, pages 83-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Karandikar, Rajeeva L., 1995. "On pathwise stochastic integration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 11-18, May.
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    12. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    13. Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
    14. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
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