IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1002.2491.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Scale invariant properties of public debt growth

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander M. Petersen
  • Boris Podobnik
  • Davor Horvatic
  • H. Eugene Stanley

Abstract

Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme poverty in the world is closely connected to the study of extremely poor debtor nations. We analyze the time evolution of national public debt and find "convergence": initially less-indebted countries increase their debt more quickly than initially more-indebted countries. We also analyze the public debt-to-GDP ratio R, a proxy for default risk, and approximate the probability density function P(R) with a Gamma distribution, which can be used to establish thresholds for sustainable debt. We also observe "convergence" in R: countries with initially small R increase their R more quickly than countries with initially large R. The scaling relationships for debt and R have practical applications, e.g. the Maastricht Treaty requires members of the European Monetary Union to maintain R

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. Petersen & Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvatic & H. Eugene Stanley, 2010. "Scale invariant properties of public debt growth," Papers 1002.2491, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1002.2491
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1002.2491
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campos, Camila F.S. & Jaimovich, Dany & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "The unexplained part of public debt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 228-243, September.
    2. Ausloos, M. & Lambiotte, R., 2007. "Clusters or networks of economies? A macroeconomy study through Gross Domestic Product," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 16-21.
    3. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 159-164, May.
    4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    5. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-1036, July.
    6. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    10. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
    11. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-319, March.
    12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    13. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-1259.
    14. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," Papers physics/0701030, arXiv.org.
    15. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    16. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," CID Working Papers 186, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    17. Campos, Camila F.S. & Jaimovich, Dany & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "The unexplained part of public debt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 228-243, September.
    18. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    19. Corrado Di Guilmi & Mauro Gallegati & Edoardo Gaffeo, 2003. "Power Law Scaling in the World Income Distribution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(6), pages 1-7.
    20. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    21. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvatic & Alexander M. Petersen & Branko Urov{s}evi'c & H. Eugene Stanley, 2010. "Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests," Papers 1011.2670, arXiv.org.
    2. Tunali, Çiǧdem Börke & Yilanci, Veli, 2010. "Are per capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4855-4862.
    3. Chen, Yanguang, 2012. "The rank-size scaling law and entropy-maximizing principle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 767-778.
    4. Chen, Yanguang & Wang, Jiejing, 2014. "Recursive subdivision of urban space and Zipf’s law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 392-404.
    5. Pokrovskii, Vladimir N., 2011. "Pulsation of the growth rate of output and technology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4347-4354.
    6. Chen, Yanguang, 2012. "The mathematical relationship between Zipf’s law and the hierarchical scaling law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3285-3299.
    7. Wu, Yajing & Guo, Jinzhong & Chen, Qinghua & Wang, Yougui, 2011. "Socioeconomic implications of donation distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4325-4331.
    8. Hu, Lunchao & Tian, Kailan & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Jiang, 2012. "The “S” curve relationship between export diversity and economic size of countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 731-739.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentinyi, Ákos, 2000. "Gazdasági növekedés, felzárkózás és költségvetési politika egy kis, nyitott gazdaságban [Economic growth, catching up and budgetary policy in a small economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 391-410.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stegman, 2004. "Long Run Projections For Climate Change Scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2004-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Barigozzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Mangioni, Giuseppe, 2011. "Identifying the community structure of the international-trade multi-network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2051-2066.
    4. Dimitar Eftimoski, 2020. "Some new insights on economic convergence and growth in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 863-884, November.
    5. Ourania Dimakou, 2010. "Central Bank Independence, Bureaucratic Corruption and Fiscal Responses - Empirical Evidence," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1012, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    6. Mateusz Pipień & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2019. "The heterogeneity of convergence in transition countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 75-105, January.
    7. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    8. Rosanna Nisticò & Antonella Rita Ferrara, 2011. "Indicatori Di Benessere E Convergenza Tra Le Regioni: Un’Applicazione Al Caso Italiano," Working Papers 201113, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    9. Weist, Dana & Togo, Eriko & Prasad, Abha, 2010. "Crisis preparedness and debt management in low income countries : strengthening institutions and policy frameworks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5372, The World Bank.
    10. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
    11. Burak GÜRIŞ & İpek M. YURTTAGÜLER & Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU, 2017. "Unemployment convergence analysis for Nordic countries: Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 45-56, Spring.
    12. Erich Gundlach, 2003. "Growth Effects of EU Membership: The Case of East Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 237-270, September.
    13. Warwick J. McKibbin & Alison Stegman, 2005. "Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions," CAMA Working Papers 2005-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Claudio Di Berardino & Giuseppe Mauro & Davide Quaglione & Alessandro Sarra, 2017. "Structural change and the sustainability of regional convergence: Evidence from the Italian regions," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 35(2), pages 289-311, March.
    15. Chatterjee, Santanu, 2005. "Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2093-2124, December.
    16. Tullio Buccellato & Giancarlo Corò, 2018. "Structural change and convergence across European regions," Working Papers 2018:16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Tausch, Arno, 2018. "The return of religious Antisemitism? The evidence from World Values Survey data," MPRA Paper 90093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Carlos Mendez & Felipe Santos‐Marquez, 2021. "Regional convergence and spatial dependence across subnational regions of ASEAN: Evidence from satellite nighttime light data," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(6), pages 1750-1777, December.
    19. Liviu-Stelian BEGU, 2011. "Cohesion In The European Union – Used Markov Chains Method," Review of General Management, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Management Brasov, vol. 14(2), pages 91-96, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1002.2491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.