IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0907.5276.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian Inference on QGARCH Model Using the Adaptive Construction Scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Tetsuya Takaishi

Abstract

We study the performance of the adaptive construction scheme for a Bayesian inference on the Quadratic GARCH model which introduces the asymmetry in time series dynamics. In the adaptive construction scheme a proposal density in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is constructed adaptively by changing the parameters of the density to fit the posterior density. Using artificial QGARCH data we infer the QGARCH parameters by applying the adaptive construction scheme to the Bayesian inference of QGARCH model. We find that the adaptive construction scheme samples QGARCH parameters effectively, i.e. correlations between the sampled data are very small. We conclude that the adaptive construction scheme is an efficient method to the Bayesian estimation of the QGARCH model.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetsuya Takaishi, 2009. "Bayesian Inference on QGARCH Model Using the Adaptive Construction Scheme," Papers 0907.5276, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0907.5276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.5276
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    2. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ting Ting Chen & Tetsuya Takaishi, 2013. "Empirical Study of the GARCH model with Rational Errors," Papers 1312.7057, arXiv.org.
    2. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2009. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo on Asymmetric GARCH Model Using the Adaptive Construction Scheme," Papers 0909.1478, arXiv.org.
    3. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2013. "Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Model by Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm," Papers 1305.3184, arXiv.org.
    4. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2017. "Statistical properties and multifractality of Bitcoin," Papers 1707.07618, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    5. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2014. "Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model," Papers 1409.0118, arXiv.org.
    6. Takaishi, Tetsuya, 2017. "Rational GARCH model: An empirical test for stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 451-460.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Kalli & Jim Griffin, 2015. "Flexible Modeling of Dependence in Volatility Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 102-113, January.
    2. Lee, Cheol Woo & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2023. "Estimating and testing skewness in a stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 445-467.
    3. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2009. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo on Asymmetric GARCH Model Using the Adaptive Construction Scheme," Papers 0909.1478, arXiv.org.
    4. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2008. "Financial Time Series Analysis of SV Model by Hybrid Monte Carlo," Papers 0807.4394, arXiv.org.
    5. Liu, Zhenya & Wang, Shixuan, 2017. "Decoding Chinese stock market returns: Three-state hidden semi-Markov model," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 127-149.
    6. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2009. "An Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for GARCH Model," Papers 0901.0992, arXiv.org.
    7. Martina Danielova Zaharieva & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2017. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate stochastic volatility with an application to international stock-market co-movements," CQE Working Papers 6217, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    8. Roland Langrock & Théo Michelot & Alexander Sohn & Thomas Kneib, 2015. "Semiparametric stochastic volatility modelling using penalized splines," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 517-537, June.
    9. McCausland, William & Miller, Shirley & Pelletier, Denis, 2021. "Multivariate stochastic volatility using the HESSIAN method," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 76-94.
    10. Nils Bertschinger & Iurii Mozzhorin, 2021. "Bayesian estimation and likelihood-based comparison of agent-based volatility models," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 173-210, January.
    11. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2013. "Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Model by Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm," Papers 1305.3184, arXiv.org.
    12. Chen, Ray-Bing & Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang K., 2014. "TVICA—Time varying independent component analysis and its application to financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 95-109.
    13. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Abduraimova, Kumushoy, 2022. "Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    16. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
    17. Josselin Garnier & Knut Sølna, 2018. "Option pricing under fast-varying and rough stochastic volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 489-516, November.
    18. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123.
    19. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    20. Juan C. Henao-Londono & Sebastian M. Krause & Thomas Guhr, 2021. "Price response functions and spread impact in correlated financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 94(4), pages 1-20, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0907.5276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.