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Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis

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Listed:
  • Steven Callander

    (Stanford GSB)

  • Juan Carlos Carbajal

    (UNSW-Sydney)

Abstract

Political polarization is an important and enduring puzzle. Complicating attempts at explanation is that polarization is not a single thing. It is both a description of the current state of politics today and a dynamic path that has rippled across the political domain over multiple decades. In this paper we provide a simple model that is consistent with both the current state of polarization in the U.S. and the process that got it to where it is today. Our model provides an explanation for why polarization appears incrementally and why it was elites who polarized first and more dramatically whereas mass polarization came later and has been less pronounced. The building block for our model is voter behavior. We take an ostensibly unrelated finding about how voters form their preferences and incorporate it into a dynamic model of elections. On its own this change does not lead to polarization. Our core insight is that this change, when combined with the response of strategic candidates, creates a feedback loop that is able to replicate many features of the data. We explore the implications of the model for other aspects of politics and trace out what it predicts for the future course of polarization

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Callander & Juan Carlos Carbajal, 2020. "Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers 173, Peruvian Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lockwood, Ben & Le, Minh & Rockey, James, 2024. "Dynamic electoral competition with voter loss-aversion and imperfect recall," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Cano Macias, Ricardo & Ruiz Vera, Jorge Mauricio, 2024. "Dynamics of opinion polarization in a population," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-40.
    3. Gerald Carlino & Thorsten Drautzburg & Robert Inman & Nicholas Zarra, 2023. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 701-737, March.
    4. Alexandre Arnout, 2024. "Flip-flopping and Endogenous Turnout," AMSE Working Papers 2423, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Amirarsalan Rajabi & Alexander V. Mantzaris & Kuldip Singh Atwal & Ivan Garibay, 2021. "Exploring the disparity of influence between users in the discussion of Brexit on Twitter," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 903-917, November.
    6. Mario Lackner & Uwe Sunde & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2023. "The Forces Behind Social Unrest: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic," Economics working papers 2023-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Eugen Dimant & Michele Gelfand & Anna Hochleitner & Silvia Sonderegger, 2023. "Strategic Behavior with Tight, Loose and Polarized Norms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10233, CESifo.

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    Keywords

    Political Polarization; Electoral Competition; Dynamic Analysis; Behavioral Voters.;
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