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Оценка влияния финансов на экономический рост через призму инвестиций, кредитов и денежной массы // Assessing the influence of finance on economic growth through the prism of investments, credits and money supply

Author

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  • Оразалин Рустем // Orazalin Rustem

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

В данном исследовании изучается динамика инвестиций в основной капитал, кредитов экономике и денежной массы, а также прямых иностранных инвестиций и их роли в обеспечении экономического роста. Результаты исследования показывают, что до глобального кризиса 2008-2009 годов финансовый цикл был перегрет в условиях неограниченного доступа на внешние рынки капитала и явного проявления признаков «голландской болезни» в экономике. В последующем ребалансировка потоков капитала и завершение сырьевого «суперцикла» повлияли на деловую активность и спрос на заемные ресурсы. На основе модели Солоу выявлено, что, несмотря на снижение темпов инвестиций, кредитов и в целом денежной массы, вклад финансов в экономический рост повышается. Однако, рост вклада инвестиций в основной капитал не приводит к пропорциональному росту экономики, что указывает на убывающую отдачу инвестиций. Оценки показывают, что основная причина снижения долгосрочного экономического роста заключается не в снижении объемов финансирования экономики, а преимущественно в снижении производительности факторов производства. Было показано, что увеличение инвестиций, кредитов и денежной массы не может поддерживать высокий уровень экономического роста и заменить рост производительности в долгосрочной перспективе. // This study examines the dynamics of fixed capital investments, credits to the economy and money supply as well as foreign direct investments and their role in ensuring the economic growth. The results of the study show that before the global crisis of 2008-2009, the financial cycle was overheated due to an unlimited access to external capital markets and clear signs of the Dutch disease in the economy. Subsequently, the rebalancing of capital flows and the completion of the commodity "super cycle" affected the business activity and the demand for borrowed resources. Based on the Solow model, it was found out that, despite a decrease in the rates of investments, loans and the money supply in general, the contribution of finance to the economic growth is increasing. However, a larger contribution by fixed capital investments does not lead to a proportional economic growth, which indicates a diminishing return on investment. Assessments show that the main reason for the decline in long-term economic growth is not a reduction in the volume of financing of the economy, but mainly a decrease in the factor productivity. It has been shown that an increase in investments, loans and money supply cannot maintain a high level of the economic growth and replace the productivity growth in the longterm perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Оразалин Рустем // Orazalin Rustem, 2021. "Оценка влияния финансов на экономический рост через призму инвестиций, кредитов и денежной массы // Assessing the influence of finance on economic growth through the prism of investments, credits and ," Working Papers #2021-8, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
  • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    экономический рост; инвестиции; кредиты экономике; монетизация; economic growth; investments; credits to the economy; monetization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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