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Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data

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  • Rubens Penha Cysne

Abstract

This paper uses 1992:1-2004:2 quarterly data and two diferent methods (approximation under lognormality and calibration) to evaluate the existence of an equity- premium puzzle in Brazil. In contrast with some previous works in the Brazilian literature, I conclude that the model used by Mehra and Prescott (1985), either with additive or recursive preferences, is not able to satisfactorily rationalize the equity premium observed in the Brazilian data. The second contribution of the paper is calling the attention to the fact that the utility function calculated under the discrete-state approximation may not exist if the data (as it is the case with Brazilian time series) implies the existence of states in which high negative rates of consumption growth are attained with relatively high probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubens Penha Cysne, 2005. "Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 088, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:088
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    2. de Farias Neto, Joao Jose, 2008. "S-shaped utility, subprime crash and the black swan," MPRA Paper 12122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005. "Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration options for mercosul - an investigation Uusing the AMIDA Model," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda, 2005. "The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the brazilian experience," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 591, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous discount factors: (revised version, forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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