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Saldos Comerciais E Taxa De Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise Do Caso Brasileiro

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  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal
  • Wagner Oliveira Monteiro
  • Marislei Nishijima

Abstract

This article aims to test whether or not there is a stable relation between trade balance and real exchange rate. The period covered by the sample goes from 1980 to 2004. The frequency of the data is quarterly. It was used the cointegration techniques developed by Johansen as econometric methodology. The results obtained in this articles show strong evidence in favor of a stable relation among real exchange rate and trade balance for twenty five years. The reason why the studies of the late nineties failed to obtain evidence in favor of this relation lies on the fact that the effects of the trade liberations measures adopted during the early nineties in Brazil took almost an entire decade to vanish. The huge devaluation of Brazilian currency in the 1999 has clearly speeded up the adjustment process.

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Wagner Oliveira Monteiro & Marislei Nishijima, 2005. "Saldos Comerciais E Taxa De Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise Do Caso Brasileiro," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 078, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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