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Consolidação Fiscal Nos Estados Brasileiros: Uma Análise De Duração

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  • Bruno de Paula Rocha
  • Fabiana Rocha

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the Brazilian state fiscal consolidation in the period 1986-2001. For that propose, we apply the duration models methodology. Henceforth, we try to list the main features that can explain the probability of the continuity of a state fiscal adjustment conditional to the duration of this adjustment up to this moment. The non-parametric results suggest that the probability of the continuity of a fiscal consolidation falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second one. The parametric analysis shows that there is a core of relevant variables, such as: the Number of Fails, the ratio Personal Costs/Net Current Revenue, the dummy variable to the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable to the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the Polarization of the Political Colligation in the states.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno de Paula Rocha & Fabiana Rocha, 2005. "Consolidação Fiscal Nos Estados Brasileiros: Uma Análise De Duração," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 047, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:047
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A047.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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