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Determinants of the physical demand for gold: Evidence from panel data

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  • Martha Starr

    (Department of Economics, American University)

  • Ky Tran

Abstract

Although the role of gold in the world economy has declined since the gold standard was abandoned, it remains important as a central bank reserve, a hedge against risks, a barometer of geopolitical uncertainty, and an input for jewelry. While portfolio demand for gold has been well studied, determinants of physical demand are less understood. Certain emerging-market countries like China and India import substantial amounts of gold, with several factors that may contribute: low financial development, need for precautionary savings, and/or strong cultural valuation of gold itself. This paper uses panel data on gold imports of 21 countries to examine determinants of physical demand. We find that determinants of physical demand differ from those of portfolio demand, and that they differ between the developed and developing worlds.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Starr & Ky Tran, 2007. "Determinants of the physical demand for gold: Evidence from panel data," Working Papers 2007-09, American University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:0907
    DOI: 10.17606/nzd6-tz08
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Xuehong & Niu, Zibo & Zhang, Hongwei & Huang, Jiaxin & Zuo, Xuguang, 2022. "Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Berislav Andrlić & Mario Hak & Girish S. Pathy, 2023. "The Changes in the Perceptions of Women towards the Symbolic Value of Gold: Marketing and Financial Implications," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2014/068, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    5. S. Maria Immanuvel & D. Lazar, 2021. "Elasticities of Gold Demand—An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(2), pages 131-142, December.
    6. Cui xiaozhong, & Yen-Ku, Kuo & Maneengam, Apichit & Cong, Phan The & Quynh, Nguyen Ngoc & Ageli, Mohammed Moosa & Wisetsri, Worakamol, 2022. "Covid-19 and oil and gold price volatilities: Evidence from China market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Liu, Jingting, 2016. "Covered in Gold: Examining gold consumption by middle class consumers in emerging markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 739-747.
    8. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2017. "Metal prices and stock market performance: Is there an empirical link?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 389-392.
    9. Muhammad Aftab & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah & Izlin Ismail, 2019. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven against Equity and Currency in Asia?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-118, February.
    10. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    11. Mohd Fahmi Ghazali* & Hooi Hooi Lean & Zakaria Bahari, 2018. "Gold Investment in Malaysia: Refuge from Stock Market Turmoil or Inflation-Protector?," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 214-224:2.
    12. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    13. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Fractional cointegration between gold price and inflation rate: Implication for inflation rate persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Menon, Seetha, 2020. "The effect of marital endowments on domestic violence in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Allison Truitt, 2018. "Nationalizing gold: The Vietnamese SJC gold bar and the Indian Gold Coin," Economic Anthropology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 224-234, June.
    16. Lucey, Brian M. & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Vigne, Samuel A., 2017. "Gold and inflation(s) – A time-varying relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 88-101.
    17. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2015. "Modelling Asymmetry in Oil, Gold and Stock Markets by a Hidden Cointegration Technique. - Modelli di asimmetria nel mercato del petrolio, dell’oro e nei mercati azionari attraverso una tecnica di coin," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 213-228.
    18. Maria Immanuvel S & Daniel Lazar, 2022. "Does Volume of Gold Consumption Influence the World Gold Price?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, June.
    19. Amit Ghosh, 2016. "Determinants of Gold Demand in Reserve Bank of India's foreign exchange reserve portfolio," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, issue 4, pages 1929-1937.
    20. Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Assessing the hedging potential of gold and other precious metals against uncertainty due to epidemics and pandemics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2199-2214, August.
    21. Mukherjee, Paramita & Mukherjee, Vivekananda & Das, Debasmita, 2017. "Estimating elasticity of import demand for gold in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-193.
    22. Peng, Xiaofan, 2020. "Do precious metals act as hedges or safe havens for China's financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    23. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Income and price elasticity of gold import demand in India: Empirical evidence from threshold and ARDL bounds test cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-142.
    24. Gülseven, Osman & Ekici, Özgün, 2016. "The Turkish appetite for gold: An Islamic explanation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 41-49.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Physical gold demand; investment; savings; precautionary wealth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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