IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aim/wpaimx/1437.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy, Debt Constraint and Expectation-Driven Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Kazuo Nishimura

    (RIEB, Kobe University & KIER, Kyoto University)

  • Thomas Seegmuller

    (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS-GREQAM & EHESS)

  • Alain Venditti

    (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS-GREQAM, EHESS & EDHEC)

Abstract

Imposing some constraints on public debt is often justified regarding sustainability and stability issues. This is especially the case when the ratio of public debt over GDP is restricted to be constant. Using a Ramsey model, we show that such a constraint can however be a fundamental source of indeterminacy, and therefore, of expectation-driven fluctuations. Indeed, through the intertemporal budget constraint of the government, income taxation negatively depends on future debt, i.e. on the expected level of production. This mechanism ensures that expectations on the future tax rate may be self-fulfilling. We show that this is promoted by a larger ratio of debt over GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuo Nishimura & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2014. "Fiscal Policy, Debt Constraint and Expectation-Driven Volatility," AMSE Working Papers 1437, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/sites/default/files/_dt/2012/wp_2014_-_nr_37.pdf#overlay-context=fr/recherche/documents-de-travail/fiscal-policy-debt-constraint-and-expectation-driven-volatility
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695, Elsevier.
    3. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2015. "On the (de)stabilizing effect of public debt in a Ramsey model with heterogeneous agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 11(1), pages 7-24, March.
    4. Nourry, Carine & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: A re-examination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 1977-2006.
    5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    7. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1423-1435, October.
    8. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
    9. Alfred Greiner, 2007. "An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital And Sustainable Government Debt," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 345-361, September.
    10. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2012. "Persistent Deficit, Growth, And Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 267-283, September.
    11. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2009. "Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2277-2292, November.
    12. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521806428, September.
    13. Futagami, Koichi & Iwaisako, Tatsuro & Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2008. "Debt Policy Rule, Productive Government Spending, And Multiple Growth Paths," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 445-462, September.
    14. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2013. "Debt Policy Rule, Productive Government Spending, And Multiple Growth Paths: A Note," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 947-954, June.
    15. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2009. "Capital-labor substitution and equilibrium indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1991-2000, December.
    16. Greiner Alfred, 2007. "The Dynamic Behaviour of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital and Pollution," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Carli & Leonor Modesto, 2022. "Sovereign debt, fiscal policy, and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(6), pages 1386-1412, December.
    2. Maxime Menuet, 2019. "Fiscal rule and shock amplification : A stochastic endogenous growth model," Working Papers hal-02153887, HAL.
    3. Arnaud Cheron & Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2019. "Growth and Public Debt: What Are the Relevant Trade‐Offs?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 655-682, March.
    4. Boucekkine, Raouf & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2015. "Introduction to financial frictions and debt constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 271-275.
    5. Zhiming Fu & Antoine Le Riche, 2022. "Public spending, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 580-608, June.
    6. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    7. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2019. "The Perils of Fiscal Rules," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2702, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Boucekkine, Raouf & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2021. "Advances in growth and macroeconomic dynamics: In memory of Carine Nourry," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-6.
    9. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Endogenous fluctuations and the balanced-budget rule: taxes versus spending-based adjustment," Post-Print halshs-02315727, HAL.
    10. Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle & Boucekkine, Raouf & Gozzi, Fausto & Venditti, Alain & Zou, Benteng, 2024. "Fifty years of mathematical growth theory: Classical topics and new trends," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Paulo Brito, 2017. "Government Debt, Fiscal Rules and Singular Growth Dynamics," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Bettina Bökemeier & Alfred Greiner (ed.), Inequality and Finance in Macrodynamics, pages 43-74, Springer.
    12. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "Endogenous labour supply, endogenous lifetime and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-259.
    13. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Increasing Returns, Balanced-Budget Rules, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers hal-02153853, HAL.
    14. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Manjira Datta & Kevin Reffett & Łukasz Woźny, 2018. "Comparing recursive equilibrium in economies with dynamic complementarities and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(3), pages 593-626, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boucekkine, Raouf & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2015. "Introduction to financial frictions and debt constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 271-275.
    2. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    3. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "The Peril of Fiscal Rules," Post-Print hal-02314996, HAL.
    4. Maebayashi, Noritaka & Hori, Takeo & Futagami, Koichi, 2017. "Dynamic Analysis Of Reductions In Public Debt In An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1454-1483, September.
    5. Arnaud Cheron & Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2019. "Growth and Public Debt: What Are the Relevant Trade‐Offs?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 655-682, March.
    6. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2018. "Home production, balanced-budget taxation and economic (in)stability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 231-242.
    7. Keiichi Morimoto & Takeo Hori & Noritaka Maebayashi & Koichi Futagami, 2017. "Debt Policy Rules in an Open Economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(1), pages 158-177, February.
    8. Kazutoshi Miyazawa & Hikaru Ogawa & Toshiki Tamai, 2018. "Tax Competition and Fiscal Sustainability," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1104, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Zhiming Fu & Antoine Le Riche, 2021. "Progressive consumption tax and monetary policy in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 271-293, August.
    10. Miyazawa, Kazutoshi & Ogawa, Hikaru & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Capital market integration and fiscal sustainability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Yan Zhang, 2021. "Income effects, stabilization policy, and indeterminacy in one-sector models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 109-133, May.
    12. Manjira Datta & Kevin Reffett & Łukasz Woźny, 2018. "Comparing recursive equilibrium in economies with dynamic complementarities and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(3), pages 593-626, October.
    13. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Destabilizing balanced-budget consumption taxes in multi-sector economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 113-130, March.
    14. Juin‐Jen Chang & Jang‐Ting Guo & Jhy‐Yuan Shieh & Wei‐Neng Wang, 2015. "Sectoral Composition Of Government Spending And Macroeconomic (In)Stability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 23-33, January.
    15. Guo, Jang-Ting & Zhang, Yan, 2022. "Balanced-budget rules and macroeconomic stability with overlapping generations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Chen, Shu-Hua & Guo, Jang-Ting, 2014. "Progressive taxation and macroeconomic (in)stability with utility-generating government spending," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-183.
    18. Shu-Hua Chen & Jang-Ting Guo, 2019. "Progressive taxation as an automatic destabilizer under endogenous growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 47-71, June.
    19. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2018. "Balanced‐Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Endogenous Capital Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1669-1709, December.
    20. Teresa Lloyd‐Braga & Leonor Modesto & Thomas Seegmuller, 2008. "Tax Rate Variability and Public Spending as Sources of Indeterminacy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(3), pages 399-421, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indeterminacy; endogenous cycles; public debt; income taxation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gregory Cornu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/amseafr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.