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Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices. Part II -- Distributional Deep Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Grzegorz Marcjasz
  • Tomasz Serafin
  • Rafal Weron

Abstract

We propose a novel electricity price forecasting model tailored to intraday markets with continuous trading. It is based on distributional deep neural networks with Johnson SU distributed outputs. To demonstrate its usefulness, we introduce a realistic trading strategy for the economic evaluation of ensemble forecasts. Our approach takes into account forecast errors in wind generation for four German TSOs and uses the intraday market to resolve imbalances remaining after day-ahead bidding. We argue that the economic evaluation is crucial and provide evidence that the better performing methods in terms of statistical error metrics do not necessarily lead to higher trading profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2023. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices. Part II -- Distributional Deep Neural Networks," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/23/01, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2301
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    File URL: https://worms.pwr.edu.pl/RePEc/ahh/wpaper/WORMS_23_01.pdf
    File Function: Original version, 2023
    Download Restriction: no
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intraday electricity market; Probabilistic forecast; Path forecast; Prediction bands; Trading strategy; Neural networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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