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Conditional Qualitative Forecasting

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  • Peter M. Feather
  • Michael S. Kaylen

Abstract

A bayesian method for conditioning the forecast of a qualitative variable on a vector of other qualitative variables is presented. An application is made to forecast the direction of quarterly hog price movements using the direction forecasts from an econometric model, an ARIMA model, and an expert as the conditioning vector. Over the out-of-sample 1976–86 period, only the expert outperformed the conditional qualitative forecast. The accuracy of the conditional forecast improved as the bayesian parameters were updated.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter M. Feather & Michael S. Kaylen, 1989. "Conditional Qualitative Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 195-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:71:y:1989:i:1:p:195-201.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1241788
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamstra, Mark & Kennedy, Peter, 1998. "Combining qualitative forecasts using logit," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, March.
    2. Christopher S. McIntosh & Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1992. "Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 209-214.
    3. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    4. Li, Anzhi & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2014. "Composite Qualitative Forecasting of Futures Prices: Using One Commodity to Help Forecast Another," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169790, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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