Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities

Key messages: 11.1: Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape: Climate change has increased agricultural production risks by disrupting growing zones and growing days, which depend on precipitation, air temperature, and soil moisture (very likely, very high confidence). Growing evidence for positive environmental and economic outcomes of conservation management has led some farmers and ranchers to adopt agroecological practices (very high confidence), which increases the potential for agricultural producers to limit greenhouse gas emissions (likely, medium confidence) and improve agricultural resilience to climate change (high confidence). 11.2: Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways: Climate change is projected to disrupt food systems in ways that reduce the availability and affordability of nutritious food, with uneven economic impacts across society (likely, medium confidence). Impacts of climate change on other measures of human well-being are also distributed unevenly, such as worsening heat stress among farmworkers (high confidence) and disruptions to the ability of subsistence-based peoples to access food through hunting, fishing, and foraging (high confidence). 11.3: Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities: Rural communities steward much of the Nation’s land and natural resources, which provide food, bioproducts, and ecosystem services (high confidence). These crucial roles are at risk as climate change compounds existing stressors such as poverty, unemployment, and depopulation (likely, medium confidence). Opportunities exist for rural communities to increase their resilience to climate change and protect rural livelihoods (high confidence).