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Monte Carlos Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications

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  • Anderson, Michael A.
  • Ferrantino, Michael J.
  • Schaefer, Kurt C.

Abstract

Many improvements have been proposed for the basic gravity model specification, most of which are confirmed by standard statistical tests due to the large number of observations often used to estimate such models. We use Monte Carlo experiments to examine situations in which features of models may be found statistically significant (or insignificant) when it is known ex ante that they are absent (or present) in the underlying data process. Erroneous assumptions about the presence or absence of lagged dependent variables, fixed effects, free-trade associations and customs unions are shown to introduce economically important bias in estimates of the coefficients of interest, and in some cases to be confirmed spuriously. Policy effects, such as for free trade associations and currency unions, can also be confirmed spuriously when they do not exist in the data-generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Michael A. & Ferrantino, Michael J. & Schaefer, Kurt C., 2004. "Monte Carlos Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications," Working Papers 15864, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uitcoe:15864
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.15864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Schaak, Henning, 2015. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on International Agricultural Trade: A Gravity Application on the Dairy Product Trade and the ASEAN-China-FTA," 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 211619, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
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    9. Kim Myeong Hwan, 2011. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Revisited," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, July.
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    11. Michael J. Ferrantino, 2006. "Quantifying the Trade and Economic Effects of Non-Tariff Measures," OECD Trade Policy Papers 28, OECD Publishing.
    12. Apokin, Alexander (Апокин, Александр) & Gnidchenko, Andrey (Гнидченко, Андрей) & Sabelnikova, Ekaterina (Сабельникова, Екатерина), 2017. "Import Substitution Potential and Gains from Economic Integration: Disaggregated Estimations [Потенциал Импортозамещения И Выгоды От Экономической Интеграции: Дезагрегированные Оценки]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 44-71, April.
    13. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
    14. Raimondi, Valentina & Olper, Alessandro, 2009. "The sensitivity of trade flows to trade barriers," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 50658, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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