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Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on the U.S. Cotton Exports

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  • Bajpai, Siddharth
  • Mohanty, Samarendu

Abstract

A structural time series approach utilizing the state space model is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility on the bilateral U.S. cotton exports to major export destinations. An EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model with normal and non-normal errors is used to estimate the volatility of exchange rate. Monthly data from 1995 to 2006 is utilized for the analysis. The results indicate a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and U.S. cotton exports for most countries. The stochastic process governing the U.S. cotton exports to different countries is found to be permanent as well as transitory. The results support the view that the impact of exchange rate volatility can be better understood by analyzing markets separately.

Suggested Citation

  • Bajpai, Siddharth & Mohanty, Samarendu, 2008. "Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on the U.S. Cotton Exports," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6849, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saeaed:6849
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6849
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-985, December.
    3. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    5. Fadiga, Mohamadou L., 2006. "Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 24(1), pages 1-20.
    6. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Shaik, Saleem & Batson, Seon, 2009. "The Trade Effects of MERCOSUR and The Andean Community on U.S. Cotton Exports to CBI countries," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46028, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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