IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333448.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implications of an EU Import Stop on Food: A Dark Cloud with a Silver Lining?

Author

Listed:
  • Thom, Ferike

Abstract

Disruptions of international trade chains are omnipresent: The COVID-19 pandemic, the recent US-Chinese “trade war” and the congestion of the Suez Canal. What are the effects and underlying mechanisms of a comprehensive trade stop? To answer these questions, I used the partial equilibrium model CAPRI and simulated an almost complete stop for all food imports into the EU. In the import stop scenario, EU prices increased for all products, but to different extent. This led to an increase in agricultural production, which caused an increase in GHG emissions. The EU’s trading partners experienced a decrease in income from exports. As also the EU’s exports decreased, the trading partners substituted these through an increase in domestic production. This increase was largest in animal production which is associated with a high value-added and thus income opportunities to the concerned regions. These results clearly show that an EU import stop in food has a substantial negative impact in monetary and environmental terms in- and outside of the EU. However, the results suggest that a reduction of EU exports can foster the economic development in other regions. I could show that the effects of a comprehensive, far-reaching import stop are higher than the sum of the effects of the single product import stops. This finding indicates that the implication of imposing or lifting a trade restriction for a specific product can differ depending on which trade restrictions are in place for other products.

Suggested Citation

  • Thom, Ferike, 2022. "Implications of an EU Import Stop on Food: A Dark Cloud with a Silver Lining?," Conference papers 333448, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333448/files/11053.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Zengkai & Zhu, Kunfu & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2017. "A multi-regional input–output analysis of the pollution haven hypothesis from the perspective of global production fragmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 13-23.
    2. Jintai Lin & Mingxi Du & Lulu Chen & Kuishuang Feng & Yu Liu & Randall V. Martin & Jingxu Wang & Ruijing Ni & Yu Zhao & Hao Kong & Hongjian Weng & Mengyao Liu & Aaron van Donkelaar & Qiuyu Liu & Klaus, 2019. "Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Baldwin, Robert E, 1969. "The Case against Infant-Industry Tariff Protection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 295-305, May/June.
    4. Wolfgang Mayer, 1984. "The Infant-Export Industry Argument," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 249-269, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ji, Xi & Liu, Yifang & Meng, Jing & Wu, Xudong, 2020. "Global supply chain of biomass use and the shift of environmental welfare from primary exploiters to final consumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Bailey Klinger, 2007. "Uncertainty in the Search for New Exports," CID Working Papers 16, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Ke Zhang & Xingwei Wang, 2021. "Pollution Haven Hypothesis of Global CO 2 , SO 2 , NO x —Evidence from 43 Economies and 56 Sectors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-27, June.
    4. E. Young Song, 2005. "Temporary Protection and Technology Choice under the Learning Curve," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 391-396, May.
    5. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "Trade liberalization, industrialization and development; experience of recent decades," MPRA Paper 26355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Krueger, Anne O., 1982. "Comparative Advantage and Development Policy 20 Years Later," Working Paper Series 65, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Liu, Yaping & Sadiq, Farah & Ali, Wajahat & Kumail, Tafazal, 2022. "Does tourism development, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth matters for ecological footprint: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. Yan, Bingqian & Xia, Yan & Jiang, Xuemei, 2023. "Carbon productivity and value-added generations: Regional heterogeneity along global value chain," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 111-125.
    9. Zhang, Haoran & Li, Ruixiong & Cai, Xingrui & Zheng, Chaoyue & Liu, Laibao & Liu, Maodian & Zhang, Qianru & Lin, Huiming & Chen, Long & Wang, Xuejun, 2022. "Do electricity flows hamper regional economic–environmental equity?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    10. Airebule, Palizha & Cheng, Haitao & Ishikawa, Jota, 2023. "Assessing carbon emissions embodied in international trade based on shared responsibility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2007. "Clusters and comparative advantage: Implications for industrial policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 43-57, January.
    12. Wang, Junbo & Ma, Zhenyu & Fan, Xiayang, 2023. "We are all in the same boat: The welfare and carbon abatement effects of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism," MPRA Paper 118978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Inácio Araúgo & Randall Jackson & Amir B. Ferreira Neto & Fernando Perobelli, 2018. "Environmental Costs of European Union Membership: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2018-04, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    14. Melitz, Marc J., 2005. "When and how should infant industries be protected?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 177-196, May.
    15. Mardones, Cristian & Baeza, Nicolas, 2018. "Economic and environmental effects of a CO2 tax in Latin American countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-273.
    16. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxin, 2021. "How UK farewell to coal – Insight from multi-regional input-output and logarithmic mean divisia index analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Yuping Deng & Yanrui Wu & Helian Xu, 2022. "Emission Reduction and Value-added Export Nexus at Firm Level," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 22-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    18. Ji, Xi & Liu, Yifang & Wu, Guowei & Su, Pinyi & Ye, Zhen & Feng, Kuishuang, 2022. "Global value chain participation and trade-induced energy inequality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Roland Hodler, 2008. "Specialization and Welfare in the Presence of Imperfectly Integrated Capital Markets and Learning-by-doing," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 391-402, July.
    20. Aldy Darwili & Enno Schröder, 2023. "On the Interpretation and Measurement of Technology-Adjusted Emissions Embodied in Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 65-98, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.