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Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Jintai Lin

    (Peking University)

  • Mingxi Du

    (Peking University)

  • Lulu Chen

    (Peking University)

  • Kuishuang Feng

    (Shandong University
    University of Maryland)

  • Yu Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Randall V. Martin

    (Washington University in St. Louis
    Dalhousie University
    Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics)

  • Jingxu Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Ruijing Ni

    (Peking University)

  • Yu Zhao

    (Nanjing University)

  • Hao Kong

    (Peking University)

  • Hongjian Weng

    (Peking University)

  • Mengyao Liu

    (Peking University)

  • Aaron van Donkelaar

    (Washington University in St. Louis
    Dalhousie University)

  • Qiuyu Liu

    (University of Quebec at Montreal)

  • Klaus Hubacek

    (University of Groningen
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Masaryk University)

Abstract

In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Jintai Lin & Mingxi Du & Lulu Chen & Kuishuang Feng & Yu Liu & Randall V. Martin & Jingxu Wang & Ruijing Ni & Yu Zhao & Hao Kong & Hongjian Weng & Mengyao Liu & Aaron van Donkelaar & Qiuyu Liu & Klaus, 2019. "Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12890-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12890-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao Liu & Lan-Ye Wei, 2022. "Effects of ODI and export trade structure on CO2 emissions in China: nonlinear relationships," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13630-13656, December.
    2. Zhang, Haoran & Li, Ruixiong & Cai, Xingrui & Zheng, Chaoyue & Liu, Laibao & Liu, Maodian & Zhang, Qianru & Lin, Huiming & Chen, Long & Wang, Xuejun, 2022. "Do electricity flows hamper regional economic–environmental equity?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    3. Klotz, Richard & Sharma, Rishi R., 2023. "Trade barriers and CO2," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Mustafa Saber & Gökhan Eğilmez & Ridvan Gedik & Yong Shin Park, 2021. "A Comparative Time-Series Investigation of China and U.S. Manufacturing Industries’ Global Supply-Chain-Linked Economic, Mid and End-Point Environmental Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Wang, Junbo & Ma, Zhenyu & Fan, Xiayang, 2023. "We are all in the same boat: The welfare and carbon abatement effects of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism," MPRA Paper 118978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mudan Wang & Xianqiang Mao & Youkai Xing & Jianhong Lu & Peng Song & Zhengyan Liu & Zhi Guo & Kevin Tu & Eric Zusman, 2021. "Breaking down barriers on PV trade will facilitate global carbon mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Ferike Thom & Alexander Gocht & Harald Grethe, 2024. "EU agriculture under an import stop for food and feed," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2094-2121, May.
    8. Ji, Xi & Liu, Yifang & Meng, Jing & Wu, Xudong, 2020. "Global supply chain of biomass use and the shift of environmental welfare from primary exploiters to final consumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    9. Thom, Ferike, 2022. "Implications of an EU Import Stop on Food: A Dark Cloud with a Silver Lining?," Conference papers 333448, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Yu Liu & Mingxi Du & Qi Cui & Jintai Lin & Yawen Liu & Qiuyu Liu & Dan Tong & Kuishuang Feng & Klaus Hubacek, 2022. "Contrasting suitability and ambition in regional carbon mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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