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Impact of Tariff and Non-tariff measures removals on structural transformation and poverty in Senegal: the case of AfCFTA

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  • Sall, Leysa Maty

Abstract

Senegal is among the 42 countries that had ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA). The objective of this study is to i) evaluate the impact of the abolition of imports duties on the transformation of the Senegalese economy ; ii) assess the impact of NTMs removal on Senegal industrial transformation through trade and labor market impact ; iii) estimate the socio-economic impact of AfCFTA on different groups of households. For that purpose, the model is a single country static CGE model, adjusted based on the STAGE model (McDonald, 2009). The Senegal CGE model was calibrated for 2014 based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Boulanger et al. (2017). . The calibration data is completed with the BACI database for Senegal bilateral trade and MAcMapHS6 for tariffs.Four scenarios of the AfCFTA have been simulated, from full to partial liberalization, with a Senegal multi-sector static CGE model based on the STAGE CGE model. . In addition, to have more accurate results, Ad valorem equivalent (AVE) for NTBs estimated by Nguyen et.al (2020) at disaggregated level are used as an additional shock. To assess the socio-economic impact, the latest nationally representative survey “Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages” (EHCVM-2018-2019) will be used to calibrate the microsimulation model. Results suggest the choice of sensitive products to be excluded is critical and have several implications. The criteria based on tariff revenue may be closer to the optimum full liberalization scenario. Sectoral and macroeconomic results across scenarios show that improving market access in Senegal for African partners based on a sensitivity criteria of tariff revenue losses is close to a full trade liberalization scenario. Full liberalization has a positive impact on household consumption globally and affects the production structure with a higher impact on manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sall, Leysa Maty, 2022. "Impact of Tariff and Non-tariff measures removals on structural transformation and poverty in Senegal: the case of AfCFTA," Conference papers 333442, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333442
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