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Economic and distributional Impacts of the EVFTA and CPTPP in Vietnam

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  • Maliszewska, Maryla
  • Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara
  • Osorio Rodarte, Israel
  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana

Abstract

EVFTA will bring significant benefits to the Vietnamese economy through higher growth, greater trade and faster poverty reduction. The full implementation of EVFTA could increase Vietnam’s GDP by 2.4 percent, boost exports by 12 percent and lift an additional 0.1-0.8 million people out of poverty by 2030. When considering the implementation of EVFTA and CPTPP the GDP increase would reach to 3.2 percent. Exports with EVFTA and CPTPP would increase to 16%, lifting 0.2-1.2 million out of poverty. Both EVFTA and CPTPP will also help to close the gender wage gap by 0.15 percentage points, particularly for households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. In addition to implementing trade agreements, if Vietnam adopts complementary domestic reforms to raise productivity, its GDP could increase further by 6.8 percent by 2030— four percentage points more than the income gains from EVFTA alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Maliszewska, Maryla & Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Olekseyuk, Zoryana, 2020. "Economic and distributional Impacts of the EVFTA and CPTPP in Vietnam," Conference papers 333169, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333169
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