IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the economic impact of the China Belt and Road Initiative on countries in Eastern Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Mukwaya, Rodgers
  • Mold, Andrew

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of People’s Republic of China’s Belt and Road initiative strategy on trade and welfare in Eastern Africa. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a proposal for a “Silk Road Economic Belt” and a “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, formally known as Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). The BRI will be funded by a US$ 40 billion Silk Road Fund from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The BRI routes will run through countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa. In Eastern Africa, the countries along the BRI include Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Djibouti. One of the BRI projects in Eastern Africa, the standard gauge railway is already under construction. It will connect the ports of Mombasa and Dar-es-salaam to Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. The standard gauge railway is expected to reduce transport costs in the region, which has implications for trade and welfare.This study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the latest GTAP 10 database to analyse the effects of the establishment of the BRI. We conduct policy simulations (reduced transport costs for imports and exports) to evaluate the impact of the BRI on trade and welfare in Eastern Africa. Keywords: General equilibrium; Economic integration; China; Africa JEL Classification: F15, I32, L91, O19

Suggested Citation

  • Mukwaya, Rodgers & Mold, Andrew, 2018. "Modelling the economic impact of the China Belt and Road Initiative on countries in Eastern Africa," Conference papers 333014, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333014/files/9118.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tidiane Kinda & Patrick Plane & Marie‐Ange Véganzonès‐Varoudakis, 2011. "Firm Productivity And Investment Climate In Developing Countries: How Does Middle East And North Africa Manufacturing Perform?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 49(4), pages 429-462, December.
    2. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2006. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1106-1114, July.
    3. Portugal-Perez, Alberto & Wilson, John S., 2012. "Export Performance and Trade Facilitation Reform: Hard and Soft Infrastructure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1295-1307.
    4. Busani Moyo, 2012. "Infrastructure Quality And Manufacturing Exports In Africa: A Firm-Level Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(3), pages 367-386, September.
    5. Guasch, J. Luis & Pena, Jorge, 2009. "Assessing the impact of infrastructure quality on firm productivity in Africa: Cross‐country comparisons based on investment climate surveys from 1999 to 2005," UC3M Working papers. Economics we098649, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. Andrew Mold, 2012. "Will It All End In Tears? Infrastructure Spending And African Development In Historical Perspective," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 237-254, March.
    7. Brautigam, Deborah & Hwang, Jyhjong, 2016. "Eastern Promises: New Data on Chinese Loans in Africa, 2000 to 2014," SAIS-CARI Working Papers 2016/4, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), China Africa Research Initiative (CARI).
    8. Iwanow, Tomasz & Kirkpatrick, Colin, 2009. "Trade Facilitation and Manufactured Exports: Is Africa Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1039-1050, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nadine Levratto & Clarisse Nguedam Ntouko & Maarouf Ramadan, 2017. "Institutions and firms’ internationalization: an empirical analysis on three Middle East countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Patrick Plane, 2021. "What Factors Drive transport and Logistics Costs in Africa ?," Working Papers hal-03198081, HAL.
    3. Bernard Hoekman & Anirudh Shingal, 2020. "Aid for trade and international transactions in goods and services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 320-340, May.
    4. Abdoulaye Seck, 2017. "How Facilitating Trade would Benefit Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(1), pages 1-26.
    5. Bernard Hoekman, 2014. "The Bali Trade Facilitation Agreement and Rulemaking in the WTO: Milestone, Mistake or Mirage?," RSCAS Working Papers 2014/102, European University Institute.
    6. Simola, Antti, 2014. "Mitigation of Aquatic Contaminant Hazards – Economic Analysis of Regional Costs and Benefits," Conference papers 332551, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr & Richard Sellner, 2021. "Revisiting time as a trade barrier: Evidence from a panel structural gravity model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1382-1417, November.
    8. Nicita, Alessandro & Rollo, Valentina, 2015. "Market Access Conditions and Sub-Saharan Africa’s Exports Diversification," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 254-263.
    9. Quy T. Vo & Tho V. Nguyen & Tin H. Ho & Hien T. T. Bui & Khoa N. A. Le, 2023. "Supportive Policies of Government as the Drivers of SMEs’ Export Performance: A Study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    10. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Brümmer, Bernhard & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2015. "The Implication of European Union’s Food Regulations on Developing Countries: Food Safety Standards, Entry Price System and Africa’s Export," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 198719, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    11. Jana Riedel & Anja Slany, 2019. "The potential of African trade integration – Panel data evidence for the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 843-872, October.
    12. Fatima Olanike Kareem & Bernhard Brümmer & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, 2017. "European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2277-2300, October.
    13. Anja Slany, 2019. "The Role of Trade Policies in Building Regional Value Chains – Some Preliminary Evidence From Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 87(3), pages 326-353, September.
    14. Mehmet Guney Celbis & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2015. "Infrastructure and the International Export Performance of Turkish Regions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Amitrajeet A Batabyal & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), THE REGION AND TRADE New Analytical Directions, chapter 11, pages 319-350, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Jinzhu Zhang & Fangfang Li & Yu Liu & Baodong Cheng, 2019. "An Assessment of Trade Facilitation’s Impacts on China’s Forest Product Exports to Countries Along the “Belt and Road” Based on the Perspective of Ternary Margins," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Imad Kareem Alaamshani & Hanny Zurina Hamzah & Shivee Ranjanee Kaliappan & Normaz Wana Ismail, 2021. "Impact of Trade Facilitation on Extensive Margin," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 131-147.
    17. Niru Yadav, 2014. "Impact of Trade Facilitation on Parts and Components Trade," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 287-310, October.
    18. Fatima Olanike Kareem & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Bernhard Brümmer, 2023. "What Drives Africa’s Inability to Comply with EU Standards? Insights from Africa’s Institution and Trade Facilitation Measures," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(4), pages 938-973, August.
    19. Valenzuela-Klagges, Bárbara & Corvalán-Quiroz, Alejandro & Fuenzalida-O'Shee, Darcy, 2018. "Trade facilitation and its effects on Chile’s bilateral trade between 2006 and 2014," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    20. Dilay Çelebi, 2019. "The role of logistics performance in promoting trade," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(3), pages 307-323, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Development;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.