IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332996.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Achieving a long-run equilibrium in the dynamic GTAP model

Author

Listed:
  • Gretton, Paul

Abstract

A dynamic version of the GTAP model became available in 2012. The dynamic version known as GDyn, introduced partial adjustment mechanisms for capital accumulation and a dynamic accounting of capital-finance and related income flows between regional households and firms, and a global trust. In long-run equilibrium, the model rates of return are to be equal and constant over time. In practice, illustrative results presented with the release of GDyn show the equilibrium conditions are not satisfied. This paper confirms this model property. It finds that this gives rise to model instability which limits the use of GDyn for the analysis of economic growth within a neoclassical framework. To achieve model stability and overcome this limitation, modelling of rates of return and capital-finance flows is further developed within the GDyn framework to satisfy the stated longer-run neoclassical equilibrium conditions. Results of the revised model demonstrating a stable, long-run equilibrium are reported together with an illustrative policy simulation of a productivity improving technological change in a medium-sized open economy. Some key areas for further research are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Gretton, Paul, 2018. "Achieving a long-run equilibrium in the dynamic GTAP model," Conference papers 332996, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332996/files/9132.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 106-137, Winter.
    2. Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-15, CEPII research center.
    3. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    4. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107002432, January.
    5. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107011694, January.
    6. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 321-321.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Gretton, 2022. "National and Sectoral Effects of a Decline in the Desirability of Investing in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 91-121, March.
    2. Gretton, Paul, 2019. "Introducing more flexible modelling of regional household consumption and saving behaviour into the dynamic GTAP model," Conference papers 333049, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    4. Minor, Peter & Walmsley, Terrie & Strutt, Anna, 2018. "State-owned enterprise reform in Vietnam: A dynamic CGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 42-57.
    5. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2023. "Should the United States rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade deal?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 235-255, May.
    6. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    7. Russell Hillberry & David Hummels, 2021. "Tom Hertel’s Influence and Its Lessons about Academic Inquiry," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 2, pages 9-39, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Itakura, Ken, 2019. "Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model [tentative results]," Conference papers 333111, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Aguiar, Angel & Corong, Erwin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2020. "The GTAP Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) Model: Version 1.0," Conference papers 333133, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    11. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2002. "Structural modelling of investment and financial constraints: Where do we stand?," Working Paper Research 28, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Alejandro Plastina & Sergio H. Lence & Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2021. "How weather affects the decomposition of total factor productivity in U.S. agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 215-234, March.
    13. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    14. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2003. "Structural modelling of financial constraints on investment: where do we stand?," Chapters, in: Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss (ed.), Firms’ Investment and Finance Decisions, chapter 2, pages 40-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. McCleery, Robert & DePaolis, Fernando, 2014. "So you want to build a trade model? Available resources and critical choices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 199-207.
    16. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
    17. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Marcela Eslava & John Haltiwanger & Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2010. "Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 378-391, May.
    19. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2015. "Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 385-408, December.
    20. Geard, Nic & Madden, John & McBryde, Emma & Moss, Rob & Tran, Nhi, 2016. "Modeling the economic impacts of epidemics in developing countries under alternative intervention strategies," Conference papers 332734, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332996. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.