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U.S. Water Resource System under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Blanc, Elodie
  • Strzepek, Kenneth
  • Schlosser, Adam
  • Jacoby, Henry D.
  • Gueneau, Arthur
  • Fant, Charles
  • Rausch, Sebastian
  • Reilly, John

Abstract

The MIT Integrated Global System Model framework, extended to include a Water Resource System component, is used for an integrated assessment of the effects of alternative climate policy scenarios on U.S. water systems. Climate patterns that are relatively wet and dry over the US are explored. Climate results are downscaled to yield estimates of surface runoff for 99 river basins in the continental U.S., which are combined with estimated groundwater supplies. An 11- region economic model sets conditions driving water requirements estimates for five sectors, with detailed sub-models employed for analysis of irrigation and thermoelectric power generation. The water system of interconnected basins is operated to minimize water stress. Results suggest that, with or without climate change, U.S. average annual water stress is expected to increase over the period 2041 to 2050, primarily because of an increase in water requirements. The largest water stresses are projected in the Southwest. Policy to lower atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has a beneficial effect, reducing water stress intensity and variability in the concerned basins.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanc, Elodie & Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, Adam & Jacoby, Henry D. & Gueneau, Arthur & Fant, Charles & Rausch, Sebastian & Reilly, John, 2013. "U.S. Water Resource System under Climate Change," Conference papers 332427, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332427
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332427/files/6131.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina Connell-Buck & Josué Medellín-Azuara & Jay Lund & Kaveh Madani, 2011. "Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 133-149, December.
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